The odds of a rate hike have fallen, so why can’t BTC break higher?
🚨 A very unusual signal is emerging in the market:
U.S. employment is cooling noticeably, and the odds of a Fed rate hike in October have dropped sharply.
Based on past patterns, this should have been a clear positive for BTC.
But even after a surge, BTC still hasn’t managed to break out and gain real upside momentum.
Why?
Because what’s really weighing on the market may no longer be whether the Fed will raise rates.
It may be—Treasury yields.
📉 The labor market is cooling 🟢 Expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply 💰 Institutional investors are still watching BTC 🔴 But long-term Treasury yields remain high
That’s the biggest contradiction right now:
Expectations for monetary policy are shifting toward easing, but the market’s actual cost of capital hasn’t come down yet.
So what BTC really needs next may be more than just “no rate hike.”
It needs Treasury yields to actually start falling.
If yields turn lower, pressure on risk assets could ease quickly.
But if yields keep climbing—
Even with buyers stepping in, BTC could still struggle to move higher.
So there’s just one variable I’m watching next:
Treasury yields.
🟢 Liquidity starts flowing back in 🔴 High yields keep weighing on BTC
Industry Regulation and Institutional Developments
S&P Global Ratings Launches New Framework: On October 5, S&P Global Ratings officially launched a new risk assessment framework for on-chain lending vaults. Deposits in the sector have reached $10 billion, up from just $1.5 billion two years ago. The framework will assess multiple factors, including credit, liquidity, governance, and blockchain security.
Whale Activity and On-Chain Movements: According to on-chain analysts, the founder of POAP transferred 4,000 ETH (approximately $10.79 million) to the Gemini exchange today. They still hold more than 54,000 ETH.
My mom says I’m useless at everything—never good at anything, but I always come in first when it comes to eating. I haven’t done much work, either—not good taking photos on the left, or on the right. But I’m still her little sweetheart in her heart. The only one 🥰
🧧🧧🧧When everyone’s spending their parents’ money, why do the rich call it an inheritance, the middle class call it support, but the poor get accused of living off their parents? The reason is simple. For example, if you’ve ever gnawed on a duck neck, you’ll know why it’s called “gnawing”—there’s hardly any meat on it. 🧧
$ETH Surged 70% Yet liquidity fell Something feels off about this rally Ethereum was on fire in Q3 It surged about 70% in one go Leaving Bitcoin’s roughly 42% Q3 gain far behind But there’s one detail I think is more worth watching than the 70% gain The higher ETH climbs, the thinner the order book gets According to CoinGecko ETH’s median market depth during Q3 was only 35%–45% of BTC’s In the same period last year, it was still at least 60% A very significant drop#以太坊Q3涨70%流动性下降
Life is like driving: set your direction and step on the gas. In your career, keep moving forward and breaking through! Don’t fear challenges or wait for opportunities—create them yourself! What I want isn’t just to reach my destination, but to stand at the summit! 😊
🌅 New Dawn Begins, Stay True to Yourself ✨ Market fluctuations are simply part of life 📊—there’s no need to panic over temporary swings 😌, and don’t let brief noise drag you along 🌊. Deepen your understanding 📖, wait patiently for your own cycle ⏳, keep your rhythm steady, and cultivate gradually 🌱 All the calm rewards you gain come from the persistence and accumulation of day after day 💎. Maintain independent thinking 💡—the road is long, but move forward steadily 💛
Højlund, people will always remember this moment.🇩🇰❤️ Although the Portugal team beat the Denmark team 4-2, Højlund’s celebration carried a deeper meaning. When he scored against Portugal, he made his signature “SIUUUU” celebration—exactly like the one he did in 2025. Back then, he explained that it wasn’t mockery, but a tribute to the superstar who inspired him to grow. Later, after scoring in the second-leg match, Cristiano Ronaldo returned the same celebration. However, last night felt completely different. After Ronaldo left the Portugal national team following a clash with Jorge Jesus, Højlund realized that this idol’s national team career might be nearing its end. After scoring, he looked toward the stands and made the “SIUUUU” gesture, as if declaring: “This is the legacy of Cristiano Ronaldo.” Then, when the final whistle blew, he refused to shake hands with Jorge Jesus and, looking visibly displeased, pushed him in the chest. After the match, Højlund said: “It’s just to pay tribute to that man—especially after what happened—someone whose national team career might be over. He is my great idol.” This is not just a celebration. It’s a young player standing up against the injustice and disrespect suffered by his idol, while also showing respect to the one who inspired him. What else can be said? Only thanks. Thank you, Højlund. 🇩🇰❤️ Continue 20k! #1688家族family #prediction...
That day was Monday. Around 3 p.m., Minh texted me:
“Lately, I don’t want to open an account anymore.”
I thought he was losing money. But he said:
“On the contrary. For the past few months, I’ve been making quite a lot.”
His account grew from 300,000 USD to nearly 600,000 USD. You would think he’d be happy, but instead he became increasingly afraid to look at that number.
Every morning when he woke up, the first thing he did was check his account. If it went up, he felt good all day; if it went down, his mood dropped. There was even a time when, in just one day, he lost 40,000 USD. By midnight, he was still sitting in front of his computer, constantly pressing F5 to check the balance.
He told me:
“That’s when I realized: I’m not the one controlling the trading—it's the number in the account that controls my emotions.”
The next day, he withdrew part of the profits, and the rest he kept trading according to plan.
A few months later, he said:
“Before, when I earned 10,000 USD, I was excited. Now, when I earn 10,000 USD, I only think: the plan is on the right track.”
That was a huge change.
When you’re still ruled by money, when the account goes up you feel happy, and when it goes down you feel afraid. When you become more mature in trading, you’ll understand: money should serve your life, not control it.
The ultimate goal isn’t to keep looking at bigger and bigger balances, but that one day those numbers no longer decide your mood.
At this stage, the market is choppy and volatile, with buyers and sellers tugging back and forth. Don’t let short-term price swings carry you away emotionally. Plan your take-profit and stop-loss in advance, and refuse to open positions impulsively out of emotion. Opportunities are meant to be waited for, not forced. When you don’t understand, it’s best to choose to stand by. Risk control always comes first—staying alive means you’ll have another round of opportunities.#比特币冲击8.7万美元遇阻回落 #Zcash现货ETF首现周度净流出9360万美元
Follow me to claim your bonus. I’ll also pick 3 people from those who repost, and each will receive $5. Follow me to get your bonus. 3 reposters will win $5 each. $BTC $BTW
Long-termism is not slowness, but steadiness. Long-termism is not slowness, but steadiness.
Take time as leverage, focus as foundation, accumulate through compound interest and break out with persistence. Take time as leverage, focus as foundation, accumulate through compound interest and break out with persistence.
True great wealth, True great wealth,
belongs to those who see far, hold fast and endure long. belongs to those who see far, hold fast and endure long.