#美股财报季 is coming—will October bring a real bargain-buying opportunity?
Recently, the U.S. stock market still looks very strong.
The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its prior high, and its cumulative gains this year are already over 13%. But beneath the surface, there are signs of divergence: since September, the S&P 500 equal-weight index has actually fallen by about 4%, which shows that not all stocks are going up.
So I think what’s truly worth paying attention to in October isn’t:
“Will the U.S. stock market fall?”
But rather:
“After it drops, is there a worthwhile place to buy the dip?”
Next up is earnings season.
At the moment, the market expects the S&P 500’s Q3 earnings to grow year over year by roughly 24%. Tech and AI-related companies are still the main drivers. Starting in mid-October, large banks will begin releasing their earnings reports, and market volatility could noticeably increase.
Especially Micron—its earnings will be released on September 30.
Now, market expectations for AI, memory, and data center demand are already extremely high, and Micron’s stock price has surged significantly this year. So this earnings report’s biggest question may not be “Did they make money?” but:
Can performance continue to beat expectations?
Is the guidance strong enough?
Can AI demand keep supporting the outlook?
If the earnings report continues to build market confidence, the tech stock pullback may actually become the time when money searches for new opportunities.
But if the report is good yet not good enough to surpass market expectations, be careful:
Good news may already be priced in.
And October has an even bigger variable—the Federal Reserve.
The Fed just raised rates in September. The market is still watching whether October will bring another rate hike; the nonfarm payrolls and inflation data on October 2 will both affect rate-expectations for what comes next.
So my thinking is very simple:
Don’t chase gains, and don’t blindly buy the dip.
If October brings a clear pullback, first look at earnings, then interest rates, and then whether capital has returned.
A genuinely comfortable “buy-the-dip” opportunity usually doesn’t appear on the very first day the market drops.
Instead, it’s:
Once the panic is over, the fundamentals haven’t worsened, earnings can still hold up, and capital starts moving back in.
That’s when the positions may truly be worth taking a serious look at.
For October in the U.S. stock market—do you think it’s going to keep surging, or will we see a big adjustment first?
$SNDK
$MU
$SPCX
Recently, the U.S. stock market still looks very strong.
The S&P 500 is less than 1% away from its prior high, and its cumulative gains this year are already over 13%. But beneath the surface, there are signs of divergence: since September, the S&P 500 equal-weight index has actually fallen by about 4%, which shows that not all stocks are going up.
So I think what’s truly worth paying attention to in October isn’t:
“Will the U.S. stock market fall?”
But rather:
“After it drops, is there a worthwhile place to buy the dip?”
Next up is earnings season.
At the moment, the market expects the S&P 500’s Q3 earnings to grow year over year by roughly 24%. Tech and AI-related companies are still the main drivers. Starting in mid-October, large banks will begin releasing their earnings reports, and market volatility could noticeably increase.
Especially Micron—its earnings will be released on September 30.
Now, market expectations for AI, memory, and data center demand are already extremely high, and Micron’s stock price has surged significantly this year. So this earnings report’s biggest question may not be “Did they make money?” but:
Can performance continue to beat expectations?
Is the guidance strong enough?
Can AI demand keep supporting the outlook?
If the earnings report continues to build market confidence, the tech stock pullback may actually become the time when money searches for new opportunities.
But if the report is good yet not good enough to surpass market expectations, be careful:
Good news may already be priced in.
And October has an even bigger variable—the Federal Reserve.
The Fed just raised rates in September. The market is still watching whether October will bring another rate hike; the nonfarm payrolls and inflation data on October 2 will both affect rate-expectations for what comes next.
So my thinking is very simple:
Don’t chase gains, and don’t blindly buy the dip.
If October brings a clear pullback, first look at earnings, then interest rates, and then whether capital has returned.
A genuinely comfortable “buy-the-dip” opportunity usually doesn’t appear on the very first day the market drops.
Instead, it’s:
Once the panic is over, the fundamentals haven’t worsened, earnings can still hold up, and capital starts moving back in.
That’s when the positions may truly be worth taking a serious look at.
For October in the U.S. stock market—do you think it’s going to keep surging, or will we see a big adjustment first?
$SNDK
$MU
$SPCX