US 10-year Treasury yields hit a near-20-year high ~5.25%. Brent crude oil ~104-107. The U.S. stock market fell on Monday: the S&P 500 -0.8% to around 7,684; futures were broadly flat in early trading Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s September confidence index came in at 81.9 (vs. ~89 expected, -6.7 points), the lowest since 2014. Both the current conditions and expectations components fell, with inflation expectations ticking up. NVDA’s board approved the largest single-share buyback authorization in history, increasing it by $150 billion; the remaining authorization is $235 billion through FY28. Monday’s close was 228.86 (+1.68%).

Uncertainty around Iran/Hormuz remains. Saudi pipeline supply has resumed, but supply premium stickiness persists. Looking ahead, watch Wednesday’s ADP + PCE and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Oil prices and yields remain the key variables.

Not investment advice; trading involves risk.