Trump once again threatened to strike Iran’s Halek Island oil hub, marking the latest escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Previously, the U.S. carried out a large-scale strike against Iran at the end of July, but this latest threat directly targets a key node in Iran’s oil exports, which could have a more immediate impact on global energy supplies.

Halek Island handles the majority of Iran’s crude oil exports. If it is attacked, the risk of a short-term supply disruption would rise sharply. The market may first react in oil prices—Brent crude could jump—while safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar could strengthen. However, market data is still to be confirmed at present, though historical experience shows that such geopolitical events often increase volatility.

Judging from the transmission path, rising oil prices would lift inflation expectations, which in turn could affect the Fed’s interest-rate decisions; this may suppress stock market valuations. Meanwhile, instability in the Middle East would hurt risk appetite, and funds may flow from equities to bond markets and gold. However, it should be noted that if a conflict does not actually occur, the market could quickly unwind the gains.

Next, investors should watch whether the U.S. actually takes action and how Iran responds. If both sides remain at the level of verbal threats, oil prices may fall; if there is an actual attack, it will be necessary to assess the scale of supply disruptions. In addition, tracking the traffic conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC’s willingness to increase production will be key to judging the subsequent trend.