1/
The conclusion from the previous episode was: NYSE and Nasdaq won’t disappear, but the issue is this—when the bundled service of “matching + clearing + custody + access” is being dismantled, what does the new “exchange” look like?
The answer isn’t one company—it’s a three-way battle, and a new species that’s taking shape.
2/ Three groups of players, moving toward the same endpoint at the same time
In the industry, three camps have already formed: crypto-native exchanges, broker-dealers that hold a base of existing stock users, and traditional market infrastructure companies with deep expertise.
Crypto-native: Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, Hyperliquid
Broker-dealer: Robinhood
Traditional infrastructure: Nasdaq, NYSE/ICE, DTCC
The key is that these three paths have already started crossing ownership and borrowing strength from each other, rather than simply going head-to-head.
3/ The most obvious crossover: Nasdaq invests in Kraken
In September, Nasdaq Ventures announced a $100 million investment in Kraken’s parent company, Payward, deepening cooperation on tokenized-stock infrastructure. At the same time, Payward also plans to bring compliant U.S. perpetual contracts to Hyperliquid via its Bitnomial subsidiary, which is regulated by the CFTC.
One side is traditional exchanges paying, and the other is licensed exchanges borrowing the Hyperliquid route for distribution. The question of “who is the new exchange” is being quietly rewritten by cross-ownership at the capital layer.
4/ Coinbase: the entrance-player; the most interesting data comes from Base
Coinbase launched the B20 standard on August 24, emphasizing that tokens correspond 1:1 to custodial shares and that holders enjoy full rights. According to disclosures by the Base team itself, on September 19 the trading volume of tokenized stocks surpassed $1 billion, and spot DEX trading grew about 830% month-over-month.
But the details are worth noting: this is official-briefing data, and roughly 85% (about $850 million) happened on Base-native DEX Aerodrome. That means, within Coinbase’s own ecosystem, spot matching isn’t defaulting to Uniswap. Coinbase also uses Chainlink oracles to provide pricing for these assets.
5/ Robinhood vs. Kraken: two real-world “compliance blemishes”
On the Robinhood Chain, there are already about 200 stock tokens, but they’re structured as debt securities issued by a Jersey Island SPV. Analysts say Robinhood needs to add features like shareholder rights to fit the new exemption. Kraken’s xStocks cumulative trading volume is about $25 billion, but most of it is centralized order matching, not truly on-chain trading.
In other words: today, the two biggest pieces are precisely the two that are “least like on-chain exchanges.”
6/ So "new exchanges" are more like a new species: all-round trading venues
In the industry, people have already started calling it a “Universal Exchange”: a single entry point offering tokenized spot, stock perps, commodities, and prediction markets, settled in stablecoins, running 24/7. Kraken launched tokenized perps with up to 20x leverage. Binance offers tokenized securities via Ondo. Coinbase has stuffed more than 8,000 stocks into one app.
Whoever can build “spot + leverage + stablecoins + compliance” into the same interface will look most like a new exchange.
7/ The position of the four coins on this new map
$HYPE: the closest thing to a “native new exchange” form factor—built-in matching, clearing, and a public chain—and Kraken is routing/distributing through it. But access for compliant U.S. users remains the biggest variable.
$UNI: the neutral version of “an exchange as a protocol,” benefiting from the SEC’s exempt “permissioned AMM” model. But in the Base ecosystem, Aerodrome already grabs the lion’s share, which shows it’s not a “default winner.”
$LINK: Coinbase and traditional exchanges are using the same class of oracle standards— the more exchanges there are, the more valuable a neutral standard becomes.
$ONDO: more like an issuance layer supplying different exchanges (Binance is rolling it out through it), not the exchange itself.
8/ One needs to stay clear-headed
By Reuters’ estimates, the total market size for tokenized stocks is only about $3 billion, with monthly trading volume under $30 billion—still a tiny slice compared with the scale of U.S. equities. Analysts also point out that trading limits, issuer exit rights, and technical constraints will, in the short term, protect traditional exchanges from any real impact.
So a “new exchange” is more like an early positioning battle, not the endgame where the winner is already decided.
9/
Risk warning: the SEC exemptions are five-year temporary policies; B20’s trading data is according to the official baseline; the structures of existing products like Robinhood and Kraken may need to be adjusted to remain compliant; issuers may also take legal countermeasures against tokenized stocks that were issued without consent.
Pure industry-structure research and does not constitute investment advice; DYOR.
If Tokenized Stocks eventually flow in large volume into DeFi,
So here’s an even bigger question:
RWA’s biggest market might not be trading, but—collateral?
Next episode of the “Kelly Four Coins Radar”: the biggest imagination in RWA might not be trading, but “collateral”