【Could this round of market action be the crypto market’s “final dance”?】
Lately, I’ve noticed an increasingly obvious phenomenon on Binance: old coins, major coins, altcoins, and new coins have started rolling out in turn, with capital flowing from large-cap assets to higher-beta ones. This isn’t just a few coins going up—market breadth is clearly expanding.
I’ve actually begun to feel cautious: the rally may be entering its second half.
What’s even more notable is the U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still at high levels, but the market is now simultaneously dealing with high oil prices, high U.S. Treasury yields, AI valuation pressure, and renewed expectations for rate hikes. On September 28, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.23%. The market is currently still pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes in October.
Tech stocks are the key engine of this U.S. market rally. Once there’s a systemic correction in AI/semiconductors, the Nasdaq will face pressure first, and then the heavy-weight tech stocks will further drag on the S&P 500.
As for whether, after Trump’s midterm election ends, he would actively allow tech stocks to pull back, I won’t make that call directly, because that falls into speculation about political motives. But what can be confirmed is this: changes in policies, market expectations, and risk appetite before and after the midterm elections are indeed worth close attention.
So my script right now is:
Crypto keeps rotating → smaller coins go crazy → U.S. stocks’ tech at high levels → liquidity starts tightening → finally enters a high-volatility phase.
The truly dangerous signal isn’t “a certain coin is down,” but rather:
BTC not rising, altcoins疯狂疯狂 catching up with a rush + the Nasdaq weakening at high levels + Treasury yields continuing to climb + rate-hike expectations continuing to heat up
Personal opinion only for reference and does not constitute investment advice!
#股票财报季 $0G $ETH
Lately, I’ve noticed an increasingly obvious phenomenon on Binance: old coins, major coins, altcoins, and new coins have started rolling out in turn, with capital flowing from large-cap assets to higher-beta ones. This isn’t just a few coins going up—market breadth is clearly expanding.
I’ve actually begun to feel cautious: the rally may be entering its second half.
What’s even more notable is the U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are still at high levels, but the market is now simultaneously dealing with high oil prices, high U.S. Treasury yields, AI valuation pressure, and renewed expectations for rate hikes. On September 28, the S&P 500 fell 0.8% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%, and the 10-year Treasury yield once rose to 5.23%. The market is currently still pricing in the possibility of additional rate hikes in October.
Tech stocks are the key engine of this U.S. market rally. Once there’s a systemic correction in AI/semiconductors, the Nasdaq will face pressure first, and then the heavy-weight tech stocks will further drag on the S&P 500.
As for whether, after Trump’s midterm election ends, he would actively allow tech stocks to pull back, I won’t make that call directly, because that falls into speculation about political motives. But what can be confirmed is this: changes in policies, market expectations, and risk appetite before and after the midterm elections are indeed worth close attention.
So my script right now is:
Crypto keeps rotating → smaller coins go crazy → U.S. stocks’ tech at high levels → liquidity starts tightening → finally enters a high-volatility phase.
The truly dangerous signal isn’t “a certain coin is down,” but rather:
BTC not rising, altcoins疯狂疯狂 catching up with a rush + the Nasdaq weakening at high levels + Treasury yields continuing to climb + rate-hike expectations continuing to heat up
Personal opinion only for reference and does not constitute investment advice!
#股票财报季 $0G $ETH
