4. Profit-Loss Ratio Takes Priority Over Win Rate There is no need to pursue a very high accuracy rate. Even if the win rate is only 40%, as long as the profit-loss ratio is maintained at 2:1 or 3:1, long-term returns can still be positive. Blindly pursuing a high win rate often leads to frequent small profits and early exits; once a large loss occurs, all previous gains can be wiped out immediately.
Yesterday resumed live streaming (calling 6 orders to eat 6 orders). Today is the second day. Today we called 3 orders to eat 3 orders, and we still have a 100% win rate.
Every day, we stream live from 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM. New and returning friends are welcome to join the live room.
(P.S. Slowly get back into shape, take care of your body, and only call trades at better positions—proceed steadily. Event contract isn’t my current main focus, but taking a look at the chart and trading orders is still not a problem.)
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But this time, what Wall Street really wants to know might not be how much the EPS beat is.
Instead, it’s a question worth tens of trillions of dollars:
With all that money being burned by AI—are they actually starting to make profits yet?
In the past few years, tech giants have been疯狂 buying GPUs, building data centers, and racing for power and compute capacity.
Now the pressure is starting to show:
🤖 AI demand is still exploding 💰 Cloud providers’ capital expenditures continue to expand 🔥 Orders for AI chips and memory remain tight ⚠️ But the market is starting to ask: how long before the spending turns into profits?
Micron’s latest earnings report has already sent a signal—demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, and customers’ long-term purchasing commitments continue to increase.
But the real test is still ahead.
If the next round of tech giant earnings proves that:
AI revenue growth > AI spending growth
the market may once again price in the “AI productivity revolution.”
On the other hand, if profits can’t keep up with capital expenditures—
then these currently expensive AI valuations will, for the first time, truly face scrutiny.
And it’s not just about the US stock market.
Once tech-sector risk appetite changes, BTC and the entire crypto market could be repriced as well.
So for this earnings season, I’m only watching one question:
Is AI starting to print money—or still burning it?
The Fed’s hawkish cry is back! U.S. Treasury yields surge—where will the stock market go next?
U.S. stocks ended Wednesday with mixed performance. Although cooler PCE data briefly boosted the broader market, as Fed officials collectively released “hawkish” signals, both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index strengthened, weighing again on equities.
🚨 Fed turns uniformly hawkish: Is rate hikes not at the end? Kashkari (President of the Minneapolis Fed): Inflation is still about 3%, far above the 2% goal. The neutral interest rate may be higher than previously expected. He expects another rate hike this year and another in 2027. He also cautioned about risks of long-term supply shocks stemming from the situation in Iran.
Lisa Cook (Federal Reserve Board Governor): Inflation has been above target for more than five and a half years. She supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and emphasized how high energy and housing costs in rural areas squeeze household budgets.
Goolsbee (President of the Chicago Fed): He bluntly said that maintaining high inflation for a long time is “playing with fire.” Large fiscal deficits and market expectations of AI-driven productivity gains could both lead to the economy overheating.
📈 Market reaction: Treasury yields hit multi-year highs, and the dollar strengthens
Treasury yields leap higher: The intraday yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 5.3%, while the 30-year rose to around 5.64%, both at the highest levels since 2002.
U.S. stocks whipsaw: The Dow fell by more than 440 points in a single day, and the S&P 500 closed lower. Only the Nasdaq ended higher against the trend, supported by technology stocks.
The dollar index holds firm: The dollar rose nearly 2% in September, posting its best monthly performance in half a year. The market has basically priced in a December rate hike. It is now expected that total tightening over the next 12 months will be about 90 basis points.
💡 Key observations and takeaways
1. Pressure on the transmission of borrowing costs: With 10- and 30-year Treasury yields serving as pricing anchors, their persistent surge is broadly lifting mortgage and corporate financing costs, creating clear drag on the real economy and equity valuations.
2. “Term premium” returns: Strong GDP data and the expansion of fiscal deficits have pushed investors to demand higher yields from long-term Treasuries. Safe-haven and high-yield Treasury assets have siphoned off some capital from parts of the crypto and equity markets. #美联储会议 #币安广场
[LIVE] 🎙️ ✨The butterfly C general enters a comprehensive on-the-ground development and solidifying phase 🦋
🔥 In October, it will reach the AVE hot search 📈
💎 A great time to build positions—seize the moment 🚀