Ethereum (ETH) is breaking the ‘September jinx,’ which usually sees weakness, as it has climbed more than 9% in September so far. However, since a thick supply zone sits in the $2,722–$2,822 range, whether or not price breaks above this area has emerged as a key factor that will determine the direction going forward.
Key points
Ethereum has risen by more than 9% since early September.
A large trade of over $1 million surged by about 500% in a week, as whale wallets accumulated an additional 320,000 ETH or more.
Around 13.3 million ETH changed hands in the $2,722–$2,822 range, forming a strong resistance zone.
A solid resistance in the $2,700s
According to on-chain analyst Ali Martinez, recently, on-chain activity in Ethereum whale wallets has been rising sharply.
The number of transactions worth $1 million or more jumped from 1,202 last week to 7,113—an increase of about 500%. During the same period, large holders bought an additional 320,000 ETH or more, which amounts to roughly $864 million based on the current price.
The key short-term pivot point is between $2,722 and $2,822. In this range, more than 13.3 million ETH have previously traded, meaning a strong supply wall has formed. Martinez assesses that due to the high concentration of trading in this zone, Ethereum may attempt to break through multiple times before being pulled back, and it could take time to confirm a sustained upward breakout.
If this resistance zone is clearly broken, the next resistance levels are expected to be $2,970, followed by $3,366, drawing market attention. The recent expansion of buying by whale addresses is interpreted as a signal of strong demand ahead of a breakout above this price range.
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Supply compression, with demand driven by ETFs
On-chain indicators show clear supply tightening. Ethereum staying on trackable crypto exchanges accounts for only 3.49% of the total supply, and since June 1, an additional 1.16% has moved out of exchanges.
About 35% of Ethereum is currently locked up in staking, and it is estimated that roughly $53 billion in assets is tied up in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. A substantial portion of holdings by long-term holders and corporate treasury reserves is also kept in long-term storage outside exchanges, meaning that if demand increases, the amount of readily sellable circulating supply could shrink further.
Institutional demand remains steady as well. In recent days, roughly $690 million has flowed into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs over the last five trading sessions. Of this, about $270 million came in on Monday alone, and $162 million on Tuesday, according to estimates.
High-risk leveraged bets have also appeared in the market. An anonymous trader reportedly built a long position of about $99 million using 25x leverage around the $2,660 level. If no additional collateral is added, the liquidation price is estimated to be about $2,552.
Until now, Ethereum has typically shown a weak trend in September. This year, however, with a rise of over 9%, a decrease in exchange-held balances, and a sharp surge in whale activity, market focus is on whether Ethereum can break through the $2,722–$2,822 resistance wall and settle higher.
Next up: OpenAI—adjusting the pace of frontier AI development after the “sandbox escape” on September 20