To put it simply, here’s my understanding of the overall market: #BTC
1: It’s stuck in a choppy range—going nowhere but also not giving way. It keeps shaking around until Friday, when non-farm news hits. 82500 has been tested many times without breaking down; likewise, 85000 has been tested many times without breaking through. Also, the “top” is lowering while the “bottom” is lifting. So it can only form one kind of pattern: a converging triangle, and then wait for Friday’s news to choose a direction.
2: The 80,000 level definitely needs to be tested. And the 87,000 level also needs to be tried. The real question is: should it move up first or down first?
3: If you believe this is a bull market, then as it gets closer to 80,000, you should consider going long at dips. If you don’t believe it’s a bull market, then as it gets closer to 87,000, you should consider shorting.
4: Personally, based on my subjectivity, I believe this is already a bull market—so I’m more willing to go long on dips. Objectively speaking, if it really breaks down through 80,000, then be mentally prepared to respect what the market does.
5: Trading is about what you understand. There’s no absolute right or wrong—what’s wrong is: not cutting losses, trading too frequently, and stubbornly holding positions against the trend.
6: If you flip enough coins, heads and tails will eventually get close to a 50/50 split. With enough trades, your final win rate will also approach 50%. The difference between making money and losing money is how you control the drawdown from each incorrect trade!
1: It’s stuck in a choppy range—going nowhere but also not giving way. It keeps shaking around until Friday, when non-farm news hits. 82500 has been tested many times without breaking down; likewise, 85000 has been tested many times without breaking through. Also, the “top” is lowering while the “bottom” is lifting. So it can only form one kind of pattern: a converging triangle, and then wait for Friday’s news to choose a direction.
2: The 80,000 level definitely needs to be tested. And the 87,000 level also needs to be tried. The real question is: should it move up first or down first?
3: If you believe this is a bull market, then as it gets closer to 80,000, you should consider going long at dips. If you don’t believe it’s a bull market, then as it gets closer to 87,000, you should consider shorting.
4: Personally, based on my subjectivity, I believe this is already a bull market—so I’m more willing to go long on dips. Objectively speaking, if it really breaks down through 80,000, then be mentally prepared to respect what the market does.
5: Trading is about what you understand. There’s no absolute right or wrong—what’s wrong is: not cutting losses, trading too frequently, and stubbornly holding positions against the trend.
6: If you flip enough coins, heads and tails will eventually get close to a 50/50 split. With enough trades, your final win rate will also approach 50%. The difference between making money and losing money is how you control the drawdown from each incorrect trade!
