Oil prices rise, gold falls—this contradictory combo is kind of interesting today.
As the European session opens, the main theme is still the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait. Brent jumped more than 2% to $107.44, extending a two-day gain. Bloomberg reports that Iranian officials are privately pessimistic, believing negotiations won’t be possible before the November U.S. midterm elections. Most likely, this matter will continue to drag on.
What’s surreal is that “safe-haven” gold actually dropped instead. COMEX gold fell 4% overnight to 4,148, the lowest in seven weeks, while silver dropped even more—nearly 6%. The logic isn’t complicated: higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, the market increases bets on further Fed rate hikes, and both the dollar and yields strengthen—everyone is watching Wednesday’s PCE data. In this kind of trading environment, gold just can’t hold up.
$BTC has some backbone being above 83,000—didn’t collapse together with the stock market (the S&P 500’s gains for September have already been fully unwound). $ZEC didn’t get the same treatment: it dropped 12% in a day. When “risk off” hits, altcoins are the first to be cut, and they never show mercy.
My take: the macro ship is getting tossed around badly. Keep your position sizes in check. Don’t rush to catch falling knives with altcoins—let’s see what happens after the PCE data lands.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #宏观 #霍尔木兹海峡 #PCE数据 #altcoin
As the European session opens, the main theme is still the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the strait. Brent jumped more than 2% to $107.44, extending a two-day gain. Bloomberg reports that Iranian officials are privately pessimistic, believing negotiations won’t be possible before the November U.S. midterm elections. Most likely, this matter will continue to drag on.
What’s surreal is that “safe-haven” gold actually dropped instead. COMEX gold fell 4% overnight to 4,148, the lowest in seven weeks, while silver dropped even more—nearly 6%. The logic isn’t complicated: higher oil prices lift inflation expectations, the market increases bets on further Fed rate hikes, and both the dollar and yields strengthen—everyone is watching Wednesday’s PCE data. In this kind of trading environment, gold just can’t hold up.
$BTC has some backbone being above 83,000—didn’t collapse together with the stock market (the S&P 500’s gains for September have already been fully unwound). $ZEC didn’t get the same treatment: it dropped 12% in a day. When “risk off” hits, altcoins are the first to be cut, and they never show mercy.
My take: the macro ship is getting tossed around badly. Keep your position sizes in check. Don’t rush to catch falling knives with altcoins—let’s see what happens after the PCE data lands.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #宏观 #霍尔木兹海峡 #PCE数据 #altcoin