U.S. stocks close on Sep 28: The 10-year yield closed at 5.24%. Nvidia rose the most, driven by a $150 billion share repurchase, as the index absorbed the increase in yields
As of 2026-09-29 16:17 JST. Sources: Reuters, Nvidia press releases, Stocknear closing prices, YCharts/MarketWatch Treasury yields, CME FedWatch, and Farside-style ETF data. Research perspectives only; not investment advice. Trading involves risk.
1. Above-the-fold
The market is trading the discount rate, not chip orders. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 5.24%, touched about 5.27% during the session, and Reuters said it’s at about a 19-year high; the 30-year is about 5.57%, near the upper range since 2004. S&P 7683.69 (-0.8%) and the Nasdaq 26820.38 (-0.9%) have almost given back Friday’s rebound. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the only weight that has prevented the Nasdaq from falling even more. CME priced an additional 25 basis points for Oct 27-28 to about 68%.
II. Market action
Indexes: S&P 7683.69 (-59.72); Dow 51481.51 (-347.11); Nasdaq 26820.38 (-248.34); Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down about 1.4%.
Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.24% (around 5.17% on Friday). MarketWatch shows an intraday high of 5.277% and a close of 5.244% on September 28. The 2-year yield was around 4.94%. The 10-year yield rose nearly 50 basis points in September.
Commodities: WTI $92.60; Brent $105.28; spot gold around $4,131.53 (-3.61%).
Crypto: BTC around $83,000–$83,500. The latest complete settlement day for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was September 25, with inflows of about $134.5 million (IBIT +$97 million, FBTC +$49.3 million); flows remain positive over the past 7 days. Do not report Friday’s inflows as today’s.
III. Three deep dives
1) Treasuries
Mechanism: Resilient growth + elevated oil prices + supply are pushing up both the short-end rate-hike path and the long-end term premium. Equity duration is being compressed, and gold, as a long-duration asset, is also taking a hit.
Priced in: An October rate hike has shifted from “possible” to the market’s base case (rising from about 55% after the meeting to around 68%).
Bull case: A break below 5.20% alongside retreating oil prices would support a recovery in growth-stock valuations.
Bear case: If the yield closes above 5.27% and holds there, growth stocks will continue to give way to rates.
Invalidation: The 10-year yield falls back below 5.10%.
2) Nvidia’s $150 billion
Press release (2026-09-28): The board authorized an additional $150 billion in share buybacks, raising the remaining authorization to $235 billion, with execution expected through fiscal 2028 (around January 2028). Jensen Huang’s exact words emphasized that cash flow would cover both capital expenditures and shareholder returns. An additional $80 billion was authorized in May. This is an authorization ceiling, not $150 billion going into the market that day.
Price: Closed at $228.86 (+1.68%); high/low $233.21 / $228.04; volume around 141 million shares; after-hours around $229.48. Most of the other Magnificent Seven stocks closed lower: Meta -4.79%, Tesla -3.96%, Microsoft -1.33%, Amazon -1.41%.
Trading implication: Buybacks hedge against valuation compression; they are not new data-center orders. The stock surged intraday to $233.21 before falling back to $228.86, showing that rates are still weighing on multiples.
Trigger: Closes and holds above $233.
Invalidation: Falls below $225.07 (the September 25 close) while the Nasdaq weakens again.
3) Oil + the October path
With no Hormuz deal in place, oil prices remain elevated, making it harder for services inflation to return to 2%. The next events that could shift the odds are the October 14 CPI release and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting.
Invalidation: Brent quickly falls back below $100 and the probability of a rate hike drops below 50%.
IV. Watchlist
1. 10-year Treasury yield: 5.20% / 5.27%
2. Nvidia: $225 / $233
3. October 14 CPI; October 27–28 FOMC meeting
V. Overall invalidation
If the 10-year yield falls back below 5.10% and oil prices retreat at the same time, the thesis that “buybacks outweigh interest rates” is invalidated.