Nvidia announces a $150 billion share repurchase, 10-year Treasuries yield 5.24%, and the index is still easing the rate
As of 2026-09-29 16:17 JST (US stock close on Sep 28, early trading in Asia)
Research views are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk.
【Market snapshot】
S&P 7683.69 (-0.8%) NASDAQ 26820.38 (-0.9%) Dow 51481.51 (-0.7%) Philadelphia Semiconductor sector about -1.4%
10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 5.24%, topping out intraday around 5.27% (highest level since around 2007); 30-year around 5.57% (high range since around 2004)
2-year around 4.94% CME pricing: another 25 bps added on Oct 27-28 is about 68% (around 55% after Sep 17 post-close)
WTI $92.60 Brent $105.28 Spot gold about $4131.53 (-3.61%)
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed at $228.86 (+1.68%), high/low $233.21 / $228.04, volume about 141 million shares; after-hours about $229.48
BTC about $83,000 to $83,500
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF latest complete settlement date was Sep 25, about +$134.5 million (don’t write Friday as “today”)
【1 Rates】
Fact: The 10-year yield has risen by nearly 50 bps in September. Reuters: Bonds are going through the heaviest selloff in two years.
Mechanism: Economic resilience + oil prices + supply. Both the near-end rate-hike path and the long-end term premium are rising.
What’s happened: The equity index gave back last Friday’s rebound, gold plunged, and duration in growth stocks was compressed.
Bulls: a break below 5.20% is the line in the sand. Bears: a close above 5.27%.
Invalidation: 10-year back below 5.10% and oil prices fall in sync.
【2 Nvidia】
Fact: On 2026-09-28, a company press release said the board added a $150 billion share repurchase authorization; remaining authorization is $235 billion, planned through fiscal 2028. This is an authorization ceiling, not buying $150 billion all on that day. The company added $80 billion back in May.
What’s happened: Among the seven mega-cap tech names, Nvidia is nearly the top gainer. Meta (NASDAQ: META) -4.79% Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) -3.96% Microsoft -1.33%. During the session, after falling from $233.21, it closed at $228.86; rates are still weighing on multiples.
Trigger: A close above $233.
Invalidation: Below $225.07 (Sep 25 close) and the NASDAQ is weaker again.
【3 Oil and the October path】
Fact: The Hormuz talks haven’t been finalized. Oil prices at high levels are lifting inflation expectations, making rate hikes in October shift from “possible” to a market-traded baseline scenario.
Next to watch: CPI on Oct 14, FOMC on Oct 27-28.
Invalidation: Brent quickly falls back below $100 and the rate-hike probability drops back below 50%.
【Checklist】10-year Treasuries 5.20 / 5.27 Nvidia $225 / $233 CPI on Oct 14
As of 2026-09-29 16:17 JST (US stock close on Sep 28, early trading in Asia)
Research views are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Trading involves risk.
【Market snapshot】
S&P 7683.69 (-0.8%) NASDAQ 26820.38 (-0.9%) Dow 51481.51 (-0.7%) Philadelphia Semiconductor sector about -1.4%
10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 5.24%, topping out intraday around 5.27% (highest level since around 2007); 30-year around 5.57% (high range since around 2004)
2-year around 4.94% CME pricing: another 25 bps added on Oct 27-28 is about 68% (around 55% after Sep 17 post-close)
WTI $92.60 Brent $105.28 Spot gold about $4131.53 (-3.61%)
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) closed at $228.86 (+1.68%), high/low $233.21 / $228.04, volume about 141 million shares; after-hours about $229.48
BTC about $83,000 to $83,500
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF latest complete settlement date was Sep 25, about +$134.5 million (don’t write Friday as “today”)
【1 Rates】
Fact: The 10-year yield has risen by nearly 50 bps in September. Reuters: Bonds are going through the heaviest selloff in two years.
Mechanism: Economic resilience + oil prices + supply. Both the near-end rate-hike path and the long-end term premium are rising.
What’s happened: The equity index gave back last Friday’s rebound, gold plunged, and duration in growth stocks was compressed.
Bulls: a break below 5.20% is the line in the sand. Bears: a close above 5.27%.
Invalidation: 10-year back below 5.10% and oil prices fall in sync.
【2 Nvidia】
Fact: On 2026-09-28, a company press release said the board added a $150 billion share repurchase authorization; remaining authorization is $235 billion, planned through fiscal 2028. This is an authorization ceiling, not buying $150 billion all on that day. The company added $80 billion back in May.
What’s happened: Among the seven mega-cap tech names, Nvidia is nearly the top gainer. Meta (NASDAQ: META) -4.79% Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) -3.96% Microsoft -1.33%. During the session, after falling from $233.21, it closed at $228.86; rates are still weighing on multiples.
Trigger: A close above $233.
Invalidation: Below $225.07 (Sep 25 close) and the NASDAQ is weaker again.
【3 Oil and the October path】
Fact: The Hormuz talks haven’t been finalized. Oil prices at high levels are lifting inflation expectations, making rate hikes in October shift from “possible” to a market-traded baseline scenario.
Next to watch: CPI on Oct 14, FOMC on Oct 27-28.
Invalidation: Brent quickly falls back below $100 and the rate-hike probability drops back below 50%.
【Checklist】10-year Treasuries 5.20 / 5.27 Nvidia $225 / $233 CPI on Oct 14