💥💥💥💥💥【Focus of Attention】Technical breakdown, longs retreat: the gold market is being hit by “multiple blows”！Gold is likely to retest the key support at 4000!
👉 After record-breaking speculative buying surged in over just a few weeks, the gold price’s technical picture has deteriorated across the board. A large number of newly opened long positions are hanging above the market. Once longs rush to exit in a concentrated manner, the risk of a stampede cannot be ignored.
Gold is currently printing a big bearish candle. The main trendline that has defined the rally trend since 2025 is now facing direct scrutiny. Gold has fallen below the 200-day moving average and is currently breaking down further below the 50-day moving average. The rapid collapse of the technical structure has shifted market attention to the key support level at 4000.
👉 A full technical breakdown—4000 is the key line of defense!
What the market should be especially wary of is that the accumulation speed and scale of current long positions are both historically rare.
Based on COT positioning data, about a month ago, as the gold price began to retreat, speculators bought a record amount of gold futures within three weeks by notional value. Moreover, this buying was not concentrated in just one category—speculators of all types participated broadly.
This means that the cost basis of many newly established long positions is higher than the current market price. As long as the price trend stays upward, these positions are generally safe. But once the market turns downward, these positions become potential fuel that accelerates the selloff.
👉 Real interest rates surge—gold’s opportunity cost jumps sharply!
The macro headwind is also not to be overlooked. According to LSEG Workspace data, over the past several weeks front-end real yields have risen sharply. The 2-year real interest rate has returned to a level at more than a two-year high, while the upside in inflation expectations has been far from enough to offset this shock.
Goldman Sachs analyst Privorotsky said that for an asset with zero yield, this is an extremely unfavorable environment. Gold can certainly hedge against inflation, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical risks. However, when cash assets suddenly offer a sizable positive real return, the opportunity cost of holding gold begins to significantly erode its attractiveness.
At the same time, the negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar has remained highly stable over nearly the past year, which means trading gold to a large extent is equivalent to trading the dollar’s moves. A period of strengthening in the U.S. dollar further suppresses the room for gold’s rebound.
👉 After record-breaking speculative buying surged in over just a few weeks, the gold price’s technical picture has deteriorated across the board. A large number of newly opened long positions are hanging above the market. Once longs rush to exit in a concentrated manner, the risk of a stampede cannot be ignored.
Gold is currently printing a big bearish candle. The main trendline that has defined the rally trend since 2025 is now facing direct scrutiny. Gold has fallen below the 200-day moving average and is currently breaking down further below the 50-day moving average. The rapid collapse of the technical structure has shifted market attention to the key support level at 4000.
👉 A full technical breakdown—4000 is the key line of defense!
What the market should be especially wary of is that the accumulation speed and scale of current long positions are both historically rare.
Based on COT positioning data, about a month ago, as the gold price began to retreat, speculators bought a record amount of gold futures within three weeks by notional value. Moreover, this buying was not concentrated in just one category—speculators of all types participated broadly.
This means that the cost basis of many newly established long positions is higher than the current market price. As long as the price trend stays upward, these positions are generally safe. But once the market turns downward, these positions become potential fuel that accelerates the selloff.
👉 Real interest rates surge—gold’s opportunity cost jumps sharply!
The macro headwind is also not to be overlooked. According to LSEG Workspace data, over the past several weeks front-end real yields have risen sharply. The 2-year real interest rate has returned to a level at more than a two-year high, while the upside in inflation expectations has been far from enough to offset this shock.
Goldman Sachs analyst Privorotsky said that for an asset with zero yield, this is an extremely unfavorable environment. Gold can certainly hedge against inflation, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical risks. However, when cash assets suddenly offer a sizable positive real return, the opportunity cost of holding gold begins to significantly erode its attractiveness.
At the same time, the negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar has remained highly stable over nearly the past year, which means trading gold to a large extent is equivalent to trading the dollar’s moves. A period of strengthening in the U.S. dollar further suppresses the room for gold’s rebound.