$NMR The question mark kept in the previous post—this round gave half the answer. The funding rate, which was -0.153%, has been pulled back to -0.0484%,吐出 about two-thirds of the deep negative portion. The previous post said that such a deep negative value might be an extreme value that hadn’t turned positive yet; now the cost side has moved, and the direction is clearly toward the zero line.
The other half still doesn’t have an answer. In the past hour, the price first touched 15.36; it’s only 0.14 away from the 15.5 that was watched in the last post, then it quickly retreated to 13.70 and closed at 13.92, with a one-hour move of -4.53%. This 4H high-point stem also stayed at 15.36, with a low of 13.26; the whole candle is currently +1.90%, and the intraday high-low spread is close to 16%. Tried again, and it still didn’t manage to hold above it. Downward it’s the same: the low of 13.26 briefly broke below the 13.62 level watched in the last post, then it closed back at 13.92, standing back above that level.
The 24-hour surge this round moved from about 31% to about 38.3%. The current price is 13.90 USDT, yet it’s only up by less than 1% compared with the previous post’s 13.81. The extra seven percentage points mainly come from the starting price of the 24-hour window rolling back, not from new momentum pushing prices higher. Trading volume over 24H is about 23.09 million USDT, roughly 24% more than the previous post’s 18.56 million.
The two ends are moving at different speeds now: the funding cost has started to retract from extremely negative levels, but the price was blocked once around 15.36 and recently also turned negative by 4.53% within the last hour. Today at 16:00 there will be a funding rate settlement; I care more about the numbers after the settlement. If the rate continues toward the zero line—even flips positive—then the cost side and price side only truly align for the first time. But if it turns again and sinks deeper into negative territory, then this time returning to positive would just be a breath from an extreme value, not a real shift in long-versus-short sentiment.
In terms of positioning, the move from 15.36 to 15.5 has regained and held; only then would this rally be considered as taking back. If it falls back below the 4H low at 13.26, the pullback changes from cooling off into a continuation of the decline. There’s also a counterpoint: 24H’s 38.3% already includes a significant portion that was “windowed up” by the rolled-back starting price. If the short window continues to stay weak while the headline numbers keep rising, the gap between the two will only widen further.
# Market analysis