What we dismantled yesterday was trading volume: it’s flow, not new money. Today they talk about existing balance. Shouldn’t open interest be basically the positions “left on the field”? And it also depends on the unit. Today on Binance Futures, MARSCOIN and NMR both rose by more than 30%; the dollar value of positions on both sides rose too, so it’s easy to read it as the same thing: new money coming in, and leverage increasing. But if you look in terms of coin count, they’re exactly opposite on the two sides.
The 24-hour percentage change read at 11:07 Beijing time: MARSCOINUSDT +30.2%, NMRUSDT +43.5%; after that, it may still drift. The open interest uses Binance’s published hourly records; the comparison is between yesterday at 11 a.m. and today at 11 a.m., two round-hour points.
For MARSCOIN, the start-to-end ratio is 1:1 in terms of coin count? Actually: the position value went from $23.84 million to $30.73 million—up 28.9%; but the coin quantity fell from 201 million coins to 199 million coins—down 1.2%. Dividing the position value by coin quantity at the two time points implies the price rose 30.4%, and almost the entire increase in value is propped up by price. It also wasn’t that nobody came in: yesterday at 3 p.m., the coin count briefly reached 220 million, up 9.6% from the starting point, but later it was closed off again. With $255 million in trading volume, the positions left at the end are pretty much the same as at the start.
NMR is the opposite: coin count rose from 218,000 to 713,000—3.3x; position value rose from $2.22 million to $10.36 million—4.7x. Here there really is new positioning. But when open interest increases, long and short appear as a matched pair; an increase in coin count only shows both sides are adding, not that longs are chasing. In the settlement this morning at 8 a.m., NMR’s funding rate was -0.18%—short positions paying longs; at least during that interval the futures price was below the index, so the selling side was more anxious. That’s my inference; the API doesn’t directly provide this conclusion, and the numbers are only from Binance.
If one coin rises by 30%, even if no new position (no new orders) was opened, the open interest measured in dollars will also rise by 30%. When position value is rising, MARSCOIN’s rise is mainly price, while NMR’s rise is mainly position size. The metric that answers “is there new positioning?” is coin count, not the dollar value.
$NMR $MARSCOIN #Open interest
The 24-hour percentage change read at 11:07 Beijing time: MARSCOINUSDT +30.2%, NMRUSDT +43.5%; after that, it may still drift. The open interest uses Binance’s published hourly records; the comparison is between yesterday at 11 a.m. and today at 11 a.m., two round-hour points.
For MARSCOIN, the start-to-end ratio is 1:1 in terms of coin count? Actually: the position value went from $23.84 million to $30.73 million—up 28.9%; but the coin quantity fell from 201 million coins to 199 million coins—down 1.2%. Dividing the position value by coin quantity at the two time points implies the price rose 30.4%, and almost the entire increase in value is propped up by price. It also wasn’t that nobody came in: yesterday at 3 p.m., the coin count briefly reached 220 million, up 9.6% from the starting point, but later it was closed off again. With $255 million in trading volume, the positions left at the end are pretty much the same as at the start.
NMR is the opposite: coin count rose from 218,000 to 713,000—3.3x; position value rose from $2.22 million to $10.36 million—4.7x. Here there really is new positioning. But when open interest increases, long and short appear as a matched pair; an increase in coin count only shows both sides are adding, not that longs are chasing. In the settlement this morning at 8 a.m., NMR’s funding rate was -0.18%—short positions paying longs; at least during that interval the futures price was below the index, so the selling side was more anxious. That’s my inference; the API doesn’t directly provide this conclusion, and the numbers are only from Binance.
If one coin rises by 30%, even if no new position (no new orders) was opened, the open interest measured in dollars will also rise by 30%. When position value is rising, MARSCOIN’s rise is mainly price, while NMR’s rise is mainly position size. The metric that answers “is there new positioning?” is coin count, not the dollar value.
$NMR $MARSCOIN #Open interest