$XAU This latest dive, actually, is caused by oil prices “acting up”~

The US and Iran have stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude has climbed back above the $100 mark.
When oil prices rise, inflation expectations can’t cool down, so the Fed not only dares not cut rates—it may even keep hiking.
And what gold fears most is this, because gold itself doesn’t generate interest.
Even US Treasury yields are surging to above 5.2%, making the “opportunity cost” of holding gold unbelievably high.

This round of sell-off pushed gold down to $4,144, and there’s a detail that most people might overlook:
The main force behind this dump isn’t retail panic—it’s central banks themselves selling~

Isn’t that logic kind of counterintuitive?
Because in traditional thinking, central banks are gold’s “ever-bullish” side—they’ve been buying for nearly two years straight.
But once oil prices break above $100, the situation changes:
Central banks with higher reliance on energy imports need to sell gold reserves to raise dollars, stabilize the exchange rate, and buy oil.
Buying is strategic allocation; selling is a survival necessity 😂

So this drop isn’t because “faith in gold” has failed.
It’s because liquidity has been squeezed—it's not that gold is suddenly worthless; it’s that money has become more “expensive.”

My personal view is: don’t try to guess the bottom in the short term—wait until oil prices stabilize first.
Only when central banks are no longer forced to sell gold will the bottom truly be solid.
What you may be catching now could be a “flying knife” 😂—or pressure being released from central banks’ selling.

So I still recommend entering the market cautiously~

What do you think? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments~
#黄金跌至4144美元