$MUBARAK This drop came a bit too fast.
In just 15 minutes, it smashed down more than 4 percentage points. Trading volume surged to about 6.5 times the norm, and volatility (Z) is almost at 7.5—this isn’t normal rotation; it’s liquidation to clear positions.
More importantly is OI: 15m -1.73%, 1h -1.58%, notional down nearly 1.3M. Price is down and OI is down too—that’s the classic signature of longs deleveraging, with a chain-reaction stop-loss cascade. OI abnormal quantile is 98.2%, second highest in the whole pool. And it’s been persisting across several consecutive cycles—not like one spike of liquidation that’s over after a single wick.
Passive/active trading gap is -6%, buy/sell ratio is 0.89. Selling pressure is clearly dominant, though it hasn’t reached an extreme of panic dumping.
At this level, it’s close to historical extreme ranges. The deleveraging process usually isn’t finished in one go. After the first wave of killing, there may be a dead-cat bounce, but as long as OI keeps falling, it means positions are still being squeezed—don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
Wait until OI stabilizes, then we’ll talk.
In just 15 minutes, it smashed down more than 4 percentage points. Trading volume surged to about 6.5 times the norm, and volatility (Z) is almost at 7.5—this isn’t normal rotation; it’s liquidation to clear positions.
More importantly is OI: 15m -1.73%, 1h -1.58%, notional down nearly 1.3M. Price is down and OI is down too—that’s the classic signature of longs deleveraging, with a chain-reaction stop-loss cascade. OI abnormal quantile is 98.2%, second highest in the whole pool. And it’s been persisting across several consecutive cycles—not like one spike of liquidation that’s over after a single wick.
Passive/active trading gap is -6%, buy/sell ratio is 0.89. Selling pressure is clearly dominant, though it hasn’t reached an extreme of panic dumping.
At this level, it’s close to historical extreme ranges. The deleveraging process usually isn’t finished in one go. After the first wave of killing, there may be a dead-cat bounce, but as long as OI keeps falling, it means positions are still being squeezed—don’t rush to catch the falling knife.
Wait until OI stabilizes, then we’ll talk.