According to Jin10, CME FedWatch shows a 29.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at its October meeting, and a 70.9% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. By December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% is 5.0%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 36.3% and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 58.7%.
