Oil prices have exploded again. Trump directly rejected Iran’s conditions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent has once again climbed back above $100, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has surged to a near 20-year high. The U.S. stock market opened and immediately sagged.
As I watched the screen, what I was thinking was: will $BTC follow the decline this time? In the kind of macro environment we had before, big bets would definitely be pushed around. But today, it somehow holds up pretty well. It seems like funds are starting to treat it as a "chaos hedge." Even more wild, gold actually fell below 4200, and silver was down 5% in a day—falling harder than stocks. That suggests the market isn’t afraid of inflation; it’s afraid of rates being "higher for longer."
My take: as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t back in operation for a day, risk assets won’t be able to sleep easy for a day. $BTC will most likely wobble with the stock market in the short term. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t panic-sell. If talks really break down, then the volatility drama is when the show actually starts.
Tonight, I’m watching two things: crude oil and the U.S. Treasury yields. Those are the remote controls for everything on the board.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #cryptocurrency
As I watched the screen, what I was thinking was: will $BTC follow the decline this time? In the kind of macro environment we had before, big bets would definitely be pushed around. But today, it somehow holds up pretty well. It seems like funds are starting to treat it as a "chaos hedge." Even more wild, gold actually fell below 4200, and silver was down 5% in a day—falling harder than stocks. That suggests the market isn’t afraid of inflation; it’s afraid of rates being "higher for longer."
My take: as long as the Strait of Hormuz isn’t back in operation for a day, risk assets won’t be able to sleep easy for a day. $BTC will most likely wobble with the stock market in the short term. Don’t rush to buy the dip, and don’t panic-sell. If talks really break down, then the volatility drama is when the show actually starts.
Tonight, I’m watching two things: crude oil and the U.S. Treasury yields. Those are the remote controls for everything on the board.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #宏观经济 #原油 #cryptocurrency