$PENGU This drop is kind of interesting.
On the 15m chart, it fell 1.91%, and the volume picked up to 1.82x, with a Z value of 1.76. This isn’t that slow, sluggish grind lower; it’s a move that’s smashing downward with volume. The close broke through the lower edge of the last 20 5m candles directly. The aggressive turnover gap was -18.6%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.69, and sell pressure is clearly pressing down on the bids.
But what’s truly worth watching is OI. On the 15m timeframe, OI is -1.03%; on the 1h timeframe, it’s -1.71%. The notional shrank by roughly 1.74M USDT. Price is down while OI is also down—this combo doesn’t look like new shorts entering. It looks more like longs are deleveraging, with stops being hit or positions being actively reduced.
OI’s percentile rank is 93.8%, 7th in the whole pool, and the notional change rank is 17th. It’s been continuing across multiple consecutive periods. After such extreme overcrowding, this kind of contraction usually isn’t the end—it’s a shakeout.
The funding rate is still in a high percentile recently, which suggests the longs really were packed in tightly beforehand. The 24h trading volume is 151.86M—liquidity isn’t the issue. What’s missing is the counterparty willing to take the other side.
At this level, don’t rush to pick the bottom. First, see whether OI holds steady and whether the funding rate comes down. Until the deleveraging is fully done, any rebound is basically handing food to the shorts.
On the 15m chart, it fell 1.91%, and the volume picked up to 1.82x, with a Z value of 1.76. This isn’t that slow, sluggish grind lower; it’s a move that’s smashing downward with volume. The close broke through the lower edge of the last 20 5m candles directly. The aggressive turnover gap was -18.6%, the buy/sell ratio is 0.69, and sell pressure is clearly pressing down on the bids.
But what’s truly worth watching is OI. On the 15m timeframe, OI is -1.03%; on the 1h timeframe, it’s -1.71%. The notional shrank by roughly 1.74M USDT. Price is down while OI is also down—this combo doesn’t look like new shorts entering. It looks more like longs are deleveraging, with stops being hit or positions being actively reduced.
OI’s percentile rank is 93.8%, 7th in the whole pool, and the notional change rank is 17th. It’s been continuing across multiple consecutive periods. After such extreme overcrowding, this kind of contraction usually isn’t the end—it’s a shakeout.
The funding rate is still in a high percentile recently, which suggests the longs really were packed in tightly beforehand. The 24h trading volume is 151.86M—liquidity isn’t the issue. What’s missing is the counterparty willing to take the other side.
At this level, don’t rush to pick the bottom. First, see whether OI holds steady and whether the funding rate comes down. Until the deleveraging is fully done, any rebound is basically handing food to the shorts.