#QNT $QNT This round first stays in wait-and-see mode: in the 24-hour period (Beijing time) for Binance USD-margined U-based perpetual contracts, the rise is about 33.81%, ranking No.2 on the gainers list, but the rebound has entered a high-volatility test. The most recently completed 01:00 hour briefly touched 257.99 USDT, but ultimately closed at only 246.13. The pullback after the peak suggests that trading activity has continued to expand, yet it has not automatically resulted in a more stable close.
First, connect the path. What we publicly analyzed in the previous post was the sharp drop around September 28 at about 17:00. In that one hour, price fell from roughly 269.75 to 237.61, with a low at 233.69. After that, price kept bouncing: the 23:00 hour closed at 220.68. When the market entered the 29th, at 00:00 it rebounded and closed at 241.82. At 01:00 it surged again to 257.99 before dropping back to 246.13. If we look at the four full hours from 22:00 to 01:00 together—the open at 245.30 and the close at 246.13 show little change between the start and end, but in the middle price dipped as low as 218.11 and tested as high as 257.99. This looks more like direction contesting amid heavy turnover, so you can’t call it a restored trend just by clipping out the rebound’s two-hour segment.
Trading volume also needs to be split and examined. For the contract, the 01:00 hour’s turnover is about 109.3 million USDT, up about 34% from the previous hour (about 81.73 million). For spot in the same hour, turnover is about 13.53 million USDT, up about 66% from the previous hour (about 8.13 million). Also, the spot close at 246.33 is close to the contract close at 246.13. Because spot participated at the same time, the rebound isn’t merely a single-contract price jump. However, even so, the 01:00 close remains about 4.6% below the hour’s high. Overhead selling pressure or profit-taking needs to be observed carefully. You can’t conclude that the buy side ultimately has the edge based solely on turnover.
Position size provides another constraint. Binance’s contract open interest fell from about 168.3k coins at 01:00 to about 165.9k at 02:00, down roughly 1.4%. Around 02:03, the nearest funding rate is about -0.019%. Price closing higher while open interest declines may include short covering and other position closures; you can’t directly claim that new long buying is the driving force, and you definitely can’t infer from this that someone has already been liquidated.
The cooperation announcement between Quant and The Clearing House on September 24 is known context. The announcement is about the company’s technical services; it can’t be treated as new information for the 01:00 candlestick, nor does it directly prove that demand for the QNT token increased in sync. At present, there is no single fundamental catalyst strong enough to explain this round’s rise. Next, we’ll watch whether a full-hour close can hold the latest hour low around 239.64 and then close back above 257.99, and whether open interest expands again when volume increases. If the former level fails again, the continuation of the rebound should be judged with a lowered expectation. Data: Binance USD-M perps and spot have completed the 1-hour candlestick, open-interest history, and funding rate; announcement: Quant, September 24.
First, connect the path. What we publicly analyzed in the previous post was the sharp drop around September 28 at about 17:00. In that one hour, price fell from roughly 269.75 to 237.61, with a low at 233.69. After that, price kept bouncing: the 23:00 hour closed at 220.68. When the market entered the 29th, at 00:00 it rebounded and closed at 241.82. At 01:00 it surged again to 257.99 before dropping back to 246.13. If we look at the four full hours from 22:00 to 01:00 together—the open at 245.30 and the close at 246.13 show little change between the start and end, but in the middle price dipped as low as 218.11 and tested as high as 257.99. This looks more like direction contesting amid heavy turnover, so you can’t call it a restored trend just by clipping out the rebound’s two-hour segment.
Trading volume also needs to be split and examined. For the contract, the 01:00 hour’s turnover is about 109.3 million USDT, up about 34% from the previous hour (about 81.73 million). For spot in the same hour, turnover is about 13.53 million USDT, up about 66% from the previous hour (about 8.13 million). Also, the spot close at 246.33 is close to the contract close at 246.13. Because spot participated at the same time, the rebound isn’t merely a single-contract price jump. However, even so, the 01:00 close remains about 4.6% below the hour’s high. Overhead selling pressure or profit-taking needs to be observed carefully. You can’t conclude that the buy side ultimately has the edge based solely on turnover.
Position size provides another constraint. Binance’s contract open interest fell from about 168.3k coins at 01:00 to about 165.9k at 02:00, down roughly 1.4%. Around 02:03, the nearest funding rate is about -0.019%. Price closing higher while open interest declines may include short covering and other position closures; you can’t directly claim that new long buying is the driving force, and you definitely can’t infer from this that someone has already been liquidated.
The cooperation announcement between Quant and The Clearing House on September 24 is known context. The announcement is about the company’s technical services; it can’t be treated as new information for the 01:00 candlestick, nor does it directly prove that demand for the QNT token increased in sync. At present, there is no single fundamental catalyst strong enough to explain this round’s rise. Next, we’ll watch whether a full-hour close can hold the latest hour low around 239.64 and then close back above 257.99, and whether open interest expands again when volume increases. If the former level fails again, the continuation of the rebound should be judged with a lowered expectation. Data: Binance USD-M perps and spot have completed the 1-hour candlestick, open-interest history, and funding rate; announcement: Quant, September 24.
