After failing to test resistance around $2.8k, Ethereum (ETH) has been fluctuating below $2.7k. The $2.4k support line and the rising trendline are emerging as key variables that will determine the future direction.
Key point
ETH rebounded from a low in the $1.5k range on June 1 and broke above the upper $2.4k level, but lacked the momentum to push into the supply zone near $2.8k.
On the daily chart, the main support line is around $2.4k. In the short term, the first support is forming at $2.5k, with clear resistance at $2.7k.
The average daily number of transactions has rebounded from about 1.6 million to more than 2 million, but in the recent price-recovery phase it has slowed down somewhat again.
Ethereum enters a phase of re-confirming support
After ETH strongly rebounded from a low near June’s $1.5K, it broke through the $2.4K resistance that had been capping the upside. However, the upward momentum was initially halted when profit-taking supply blocked it near $2.8K.
According to the related analysis, this zone is likely to act as a medium-term quarterly turning point for the time being.
On the daily chart, the recent candles failed to clearly break above the $2.7K resistance band, instead pulling back around $2.68K and leaving upper wicks. As a result, the short-term outlook is again tilting toward the $2.4K support line.
The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are converging near the $2.1K area. The analysis said that if a golden cross occurs between the two lines, it could serve as a signal that can help improve the medium- to long-term trend and move out of the bearish stretch that has lasted for several months. However, the cross has not happened yet.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH is fluctuating around the $2.65K level, with short-term resistance near $2.7K and a 'bullish order block' where buy orders have piled up around $2.5K. The ascending trendline is gradually trending upward toward the $2.3K–$2.4K range.
If it manages to break through the $2.7K upper level, a retest of $3K could come into view, but if the support line breaks down, attention may shift downward to the $2.2K–$2.3K range.
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Shayan Markets’ perspective
Shayan Markets noted a discrepancy between price action and on-chain activity. They said Ethereum’s average daily number of transactions has rebounded to roughly 1.6 million to more than 2 million, but during the period when the ETH price was rising toward $2.6K, transaction activity actually slowed down.
The analysts suggested it could be interpreted as a signal that holding behavior is strengthening rather than short-term trading.
On the 4-hour chart basis, the RSI entered an overbought zone during the September rally process, but is currently pulling back below the midline. This is assessed as a signal that weighs a box-range correction scenario alongside the cooling of overbought conditions.
I believe Ethereum’s medium-term structure is still favorable. However, I cited as preconditions for the bullish scenario: △ defending the key support zone △ breaking above resistance in the $2.7K area. I also added a warning that macroeconomic variables and regulatory issues remain separate downside risks.
The current technical picture is formed on top of a recovery sequence, including: △ a low being formed around June’s $1.5K △ an upside break of $2.4K, which was previously strong resistance △ the September rally that pushed ETH up to around $2.8K.
In this process, price has been raising its lows along the ascending trendline and has succeeded in reclaiming a level that once acted as strong resistance. However, since the upside break above $2.7K is not yet confirmed, it’s difficult to view the trend reversal as fully validated.
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