Micron MU still has two earnings releases left. This time, it’s hard to significantly beat expectations.
More importantly, the market has raised its FY2027 EPS forecast from $90 in March to $156, an increase of about 73%.
Strong AI demand, tight memory supply, and the ramp-up of HBM—everything has already been priced in early.
Second, the market has raised the bar ahead of time. The midpoint of the Q4 revenue guidance is $50 billion; consensus is roughly $50.7B–$51.2B, nearing or even exceeding the upper end of the guidance.
Even if the company delivers $51B in revenue, it’s still difficult to create a surprise.
Third, the growth in the prior quarter relied mainly on higher prices: the average selling price rose by about 60%, while shipment volume increased by only low single digits.
The company has indicated that the pace of price increases will slow noticeably in Q4, and that most of the incremental capacity won’t start contributing until 2027.
Gross margin rose from 74.9% in Q2 to 84.9% in Q3, with Q4 guidance around 86%; profit margin improvement has room but the scope is narrowing.
Support at 1040 is key—if it breaks, look again at 900.
$MU
More importantly, the market has raised its FY2027 EPS forecast from $90 in March to $156, an increase of about 73%.
Strong AI demand, tight memory supply, and the ramp-up of HBM—everything has already been priced in early.
Second, the market has raised the bar ahead of time. The midpoint of the Q4 revenue guidance is $50 billion; consensus is roughly $50.7B–$51.2B, nearing or even exceeding the upper end of the guidance.
Even if the company delivers $51B in revenue, it’s still difficult to create a surprise.
Third, the growth in the prior quarter relied mainly on higher prices: the average selling price rose by about 60%, while shipment volume increased by only low single digits.
The company has indicated that the pace of price increases will slow noticeably in Q4, and that most of the incremental capacity won’t start contributing until 2027.
Gross margin rose from 74.9% in Q2 to 84.9% in Q3, with Q4 guidance around 86%; profit margin improvement has room but the scope is narrowing.
Support at 1040 is key—if it breaks, look again at 900.
$MU