#黄金跌至4144美元 gold falls below $4,144—this isn’t a pullback; it’s killing the valuation
On September 28, London spot gold was quoted at $4,144.19 per ounce, down 3.27% for the day, with an intraday low of $4,142. Considering this week alone, the price of gold has fallen through the near-$4,400, $4,300, $4,200, and $4,150 barriers in a row. In China, the “pure gold” at gold shops has also slipped to 1,272–1,280 yuan per gram.
Why is gold falling:
① Bond yields are too high: US 10-year yields have risen above 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Gold doesn’t pay interest, so when yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up.
② Oil prices are stoking inflation: With the Hormuz standoff persisting, Brent has tested $99, reinforcing the “energy → CPI → rate hikes” chain. The market is betting the Fed will still hike— the probability of another 25bp in October is about 65%.
③ Geopolitical risk premium is fading: The US and Iran have signaled a “resumption of talks this week.” The money that had been betting on “buying gold during war” is starting to withdraw.
Three buckets of cold water:
$4,140 might not be the bottom. Experts point out that a “phase bottom” doesn’t mean it can’t fall further. If the US non-farm payrolls after National Day come in strong, yields could keep climbing, leaving gold with room to probe lower. Don’t use “gold is down” to prove that “BTC is a safe haven.” Today, Bitcoin is falling along with gold too (BTC has retraced about 5% from its 9/21 peak). Both rise together and fall together, showing they’re both “liquidity trades with abundant money + fear of inflation,” not something uniquely safe-haven.
For gold in the short term, it’s driven by real interest rates—not by BTC’s mood. The long-term logic hasn’t died, but there’s another ledger.
89% of central banks expect to increase reserves over the next year, and gold—by market value—has already become the largest official reserve asset worldwide, surpassing US Treasuries. That’s the long-term foundation. It can’t rescue short-term account losses.
My view:
Don’t catch falling knives in the short term. This week, the US has multiple key data points—job openings, ADP, PCE, and non-farm payrolls in a row. As long as they come in on the strong side, yields will still pressure gold. If you already have positions, set stop-losses. If you want to get in, wait until the US 10-year yield clearly drops from 5.2%.
In the medium to long term, central bank gold buying and reserve diversification are slow-moving variables. What’s “paid out” on the way down is opportunity, not disaster—but that’s on a quarterly horizon, not just this week.
On September 28, London spot gold was quoted at $4,144.19 per ounce, down 3.27% for the day, with an intraday low of $4,142. Considering this week alone, the price of gold has fallen through the near-$4,400, $4,300, $4,200, and $4,150 barriers in a row. In China, the “pure gold” at gold shops has also slipped to 1,272–1,280 yuan per gram.
Why is gold falling:
① Bond yields are too high: US 10-year yields have risen above 5.20%, the highest since 2007. Gold doesn’t pay interest, so when yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold goes up.
② Oil prices are stoking inflation: With the Hormuz standoff persisting, Brent has tested $99, reinforcing the “energy → CPI → rate hikes” chain. The market is betting the Fed will still hike— the probability of another 25bp in October is about 65%.
③ Geopolitical risk premium is fading: The US and Iran have signaled a “resumption of talks this week.” The money that had been betting on “buying gold during war” is starting to withdraw.
Three buckets of cold water:
$4,140 might not be the bottom. Experts point out that a “phase bottom” doesn’t mean it can’t fall further. If the US non-farm payrolls after National Day come in strong, yields could keep climbing, leaving gold with room to probe lower. Don’t use “gold is down” to prove that “BTC is a safe haven.” Today, Bitcoin is falling along with gold too (BTC has retraced about 5% from its 9/21 peak). Both rise together and fall together, showing they’re both “liquidity trades with abundant money + fear of inflation,” not something uniquely safe-haven.
For gold in the short term, it’s driven by real interest rates—not by BTC’s mood. The long-term logic hasn’t died, but there’s another ledger.
89% of central banks expect to increase reserves over the next year, and gold—by market value—has already become the largest official reserve asset worldwide, surpassing US Treasuries. That’s the long-term foundation. It can’t rescue short-term account losses.
My view:
Don’t catch falling knives in the short term. This week, the US has multiple key data points—job openings, ADP, PCE, and non-farm payrolls in a row. As long as they come in on the strong side, yields will still pressure gold. If you already have positions, set stop-losses. If you want to get in, wait until the US 10-year yield clearly drops from 5.2%.
In the medium to long term, central bank gold buying and reserve diversification are slow-moving variables. What’s “paid out” on the way down is opportunity, not disaster—but that’s on a quarterly horizon, not just this week.
