The Fed’s hawkish cry is back! U.S. Treasury yields surge—where will the stock market go next?
U.S. stocks ended Wednesday with mixed performance. Although cooler PCE data briefly boosted the broader market, as Fed officials collectively released “hawkish” signals, both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index strengthened, weighing again on equities.
🚨 Fed turns uniformly hawkish: Is rate hikes not at the end? Kashkari (President of the Minneapolis Fed): Inflation is still about 3%, far above the 2% goal. The neutral interest rate may be higher than previously expected. He expects another rate hike this year and another in 2027. He also cautioned about risks of long-term supply shocks stemming from the situation in Iran.
Lisa Cook (Federal Reserve Board Governor): Inflation has been above target for more than five and a half years. She supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in September and emphasized how high energy and housing costs in rural areas squeeze household budgets.
Goolsbee (President of the Chicago Fed): He bluntly said that maintaining high inflation for a long time is “playing with fire.” Large fiscal deficits and market expectations of AI-driven productivity gains could both lead to the economy overheating.
📈 Market reaction: Treasury yields hit multi-year highs, and the dollar strengthens
Treasury yields leap higher: The intraday yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 5.3%, while the 30-year rose to around 5.64%, both at the highest levels since 2002.
U.S. stocks whipsaw: The Dow fell by more than 440 points in a single day, and the S&P 500 closed lower. Only the Nasdaq ended higher against the trend, supported by technology stocks.
The dollar index holds firm: The dollar rose nearly 2% in September, posting its best monthly performance in half a year. The market has basically priced in a December rate hike. It is now expected that total tightening over the next 12 months will be about 90 basis points.
💡 Key observations and takeaways
1. Pressure on the transmission of borrowing costs: With 10- and 30-year Treasury yields serving as pricing anchors, their persistent surge is broadly lifting mortgage and corporate financing costs, creating clear drag on the real economy and equity valuations.
2. “Term premium” returns: Strong GDP data and the expansion of fiscal deficits have pushed investors to demand higher yields from long-term Treasuries. Safe-haven and high-yield Treasury assets have siphoned off some capital from parts of the crypto and equity markets. #美联储会议 #币安广场
🚨 On the first day of October, BTC, ETH, and BNB all bounce back together.
But there’s a signal even more important than the rise itself:
Price moves first, but the capital hasn’t fully confirmed yet.
Over the past period, large ETF inflows had returned strongly.
But after October begins:
🟢 BTC regains strength 🔥 ETH and BNB warm up in sync 💰 ETF capital is still in the market, but the inflow pace has cooled ⚠️ Spot demand and trading enthusiasm haven’t exploded in tandem
This creates the most critical contradiction for tonight:
Is the market’s price already pricing in the next wave of capital returning early, or did it take a step up without enough incremental funds?
If, next, ETF inflows and spot demand are amplified again, this bounce could upgrade from a “rebound” into a real trend.
But if capital continues to stand by—
The first bullish candle of October may only be a probe.
So tonight, I’m not focusing on how bullish things look.
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🎬 With Q4 starting off, there’s no “Uptober”—the market begins pricing in risks first
BTC is currently around $83.4–84.3K, ETH around $2.7K, SOL around $119.
Yesterday’s PCE data came in below expectations: Headline 3.4% YoY, Core 3.0%.
BTC briefly surged to $85.5K, but then pulled back to around $84K. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields continue to weigh on risk assets.
🔴 Nine straight days of ETF gains end
September 30: BTC ETF −$148.7M, ETH ETF −$59.6M, SOL ETF −$12.5M
Total: about −$221M.
Strong inflows have cooled temporarily, but it’s not yet enough to suggest the institutional trend has reversed.
🏛 CFTC eyes prediction markets
The CFTC submitted two draft rule proposals to OIRA, covering event contracts and their regulatory scope.
The key question is straightforward: for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, should regulation fall under the federal CFTC or state-level regulators?
For now, it’s only in the rulemaking stage—not the final rules.
⚠️ MetaMask pauses some validators
After detecting a security incident affecting infrastructure, MetaMask began exiting some impacted Ethereum staking validators.
No direct threats to users’ wallets have been found at this time. The company is treating the related actions as a precaution.
💥 Gate encounters a BEN trading error
Due to ticker confusion from the same token name, Gate mishandled BENUSDT perpetual funding-related adjustments, impacting about 200 accounts.
Gate says it will restore the related balances and take responsibility for the losses caused by the incident.
📊 Market Snapshot
BTC ≈ $83.4–84.3K ETH ≈ $2.68–2.72K SOL ≈ $118–119 BTC Dominance ≈ 58% Fear & Greed ≈ 68–74
🎯 On the first day of October, the market is waiting for a new direction.
PCE has given interest-rate-cut expectations a bit of room, but ETF flows have cooled temporarily, and Treasury yields remain elevated.
And tomorrow, the market will shift its focus to U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data.
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