ETH probed down to 2635, followed by a surge of volume-driven buying in a 15-minute timeframe. Before you know it, it had climbed back above 2680.
Right now, can we really take the momentum and chase longs? This pullback looks exciting, but the trapped positions around 2722 haven’t been cleared at all. The more urgent and 'about-to-reverse' the situation looks, the less I dare to reach out and catch it. I’m only thinking about finding a spot overhead to short it.
I’m just staring at the order book, thinking it through, when the bank supervisor called—he basically told me to go drink at his place.
Even though we’re very close, I still feel it’s not quite appropriate to go over to his place. We’re basically two half-bachelors—his sister-in-law is stationed in a township, while he lives alone; I also live halfway alone. On the way, he suggested: pour a couple pitchers of beer, grill some lamb skewers, and slice up some pig’s head meat.
I said, I don’t drink beer. He said, this season calls for beer. I said, if I drink, I’ll exit ketosis. When the body’s energy-supply mode changes, my brain gets foggy and heavy. A while back, I drank nonstop with friends for three days. Turns out beer is basically just sugar water. If you drink too much, all that fat around the waist piles up.
Actually, when people reach our age, a lot of things are just about restraint. Like the other day, I took the whole family on a road trip to Dali and Lijiang. The scenery along the way was great, and family travel is for fun. But if you really let yourself run wild—openly indulging and eating without restraint—your body just can’t take it. Rules can’t be broken.
Manager Song said, don’t we have sugar-free and alcohol-free beer now? I said, back when people were busy with farm work, drinking a bottle of beer was a luxury. Now everyone is slowly realizing that it’s basically high in carbs.
Passing by a bookstore, I suggested we take a better bottle of brandy and split it evenly—250 ml each. He said there’s alcohol at home. I said I just got it, and he agreed.
On the way back to the bookstore, I happened to run into high school students on their break. The road was completely jammed. I saw a few riding electric scooters, skillfully with cigarettes in their mouths. Manager Song sighed and said this stuff develops like a chicken coop—one batch after another, passing cigarettes to each other, and they all learn it.
I said, if the underlying logic is unclear, it’s too easy to just go with the flow. My wife has had a bit of that tendency lately. At first, she only played cards with the students’ parents in the park. Later she played directly on her phone, and even ran over to the neighbor’s place in the middle of the night. She argued with me, saying it was only playing a game like “guandan.” I got angry right away. In our residential compound, there’s a female neighbor who lost the house because of card playing.
I know how those setups in casinos work. If there’s no fresh money coming in as new targets, how could they keep winning? Someone who gives out loans said: if one person can win one million in a single morning, they’ll never quit it for the rest of their life. The group of people my wife mixes with mostly receive low-income assistance. She even seems kind of envious of them. I’m afraid she’ll lose her rationality, secretly pledge her assets, and do something extreme.
The manager Song sighed and said this problem has no solution. People in a county town rely on clustering together to pass the time. So I’m going to “brainwash” my son, telling him that real value lies in creating. Earning money from home that comes from all over the country, or even the world—that’s the real skill.
When I got to the bookstore to pick up the alcohol, I also grabbed a metal measuring cup for making cocktails. In Yantai, I specifically learned how to drink brandy: you can’t just knock back a big glass. You have to pour it slowly, about ten milliliters at a time. Good liquor might feel spicy at first, but the after-sweet is rich. You need to slowly sip and savor its thickness.
He asked how my piano lessons were going, and what the AI-assisted principle is. I said I can play it now (“Beijing Welcomes You”). The AI courses now integrate music theory and fingerings into everything, and every day feels like leveling up and battling monsters. It might seem like it has no value, but if you plan long-term for five or ten years, the impact is profound.
Manager Song said, only when people reach the age to be clear-minded and desire-sparing can they level up again. With no desire, you’re strong; when watching the market and doing things, you become more rational. I said, you’re right. After that, I’ve shown more respect to every female friend—I treat women as human beings.
Many things, when you first look at them, seem like just fun or a sweet payoff right in front of you—but actually they’re traps other people have set. Whether it’s at the card table or on the chart.
Before that, ETH had been sliding downward all the way. After it fell from the 4H high of 2722, everyone below was just slowly waiting in dead silence. Suddenly near 2630 there was a sharp pull-up. A single big bullish candle pushed straight above 2680. This move really looks like it’s setting up for a major reversal. The people ready to take the position tasted the sweet spot and are urgently shouting everywhere that the bulls are coming.
But this spike with heavy volume and a sudden surge—yes, there is capital propping it up underneath, but they’re just stirring the water. The real heavy positions are still being pinned around 2722. That was the initial point where the sell-off started a few days ago, trapping a bunch of people who can’t wait to break even. Pushing the price upward now is meant to lure the chasing crowd up to become the blood bag. The multiple layers of trapped shorts overhead are the real, solid slab.
I don’t like to rush in when the market is at its hottest. Trading is like savoring a glass of brandy—you have to stay calm and steady, and slowly wait for the real thickness to show. When the momentum pushing upward fades and can’t move it any further, that’s when they stampede to exit. I just wait until price touches the top resistance zone, then I enter.
Tactical direction: short sell
Entry points: 2705 - 2715 (don’t get itchy to act just because it’s rising on the halfway slope—let the bullets fly into the resistance zone before you move)
Lifeline limit: 2745 (if price breaks through this level materially, it means the situation has changed—admit fault and exit to preserve life first; never hold the bag alone)
Take-profit range: 2655—reduce position / 2610—fully exit
Strategy validity period: If no trade is executed within 6 hours after the article is published, the strategy fails.
If you really put all the chips on someone else’s sweet promises, you’ll end up, sooner or later, spitting out everything—principal plus interest.