#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
👉 利率定价压着风险资产
The pricing in interest rate futures for a rate hike in October has risen to 69.7%.
The projected path implied by the contracts extends all the way to June 2027.
The terminal interest rate falls between 4.75% and 5%.
Long-end yields are staying at elevated levels.
As rates don’t come down, assets with the longest duration get squeezed first.
Bitcoin’s price follows along this line.
The directions of price and interest rates are opposite.
The selling pressure doesn’t originate from on-chain activity.
It’s brought in by macro funds.
Leverage is pulled back first, and spot holdings are passively reduced.
At times like this, on-chain data is actually lagging.
On-chain activity hasn’t collapsed, yet prices still fall.
Look at the two indicators separately so you don’t get misled.
The market keeps pushing back the timing of rate cuts.
Each push triggers another repricing of risk assets.
The magnitude of the repricing depends on the length of duration.
For crypto, the dominant variable is interest rates, not the narrative.
If rates don’t loosen, any rebound will be pushed back down.
Do you think that 69.7% for October will actually be realized? Let’s discuss in the comments.
👉 利率定价压着风险资产
The pricing in interest rate futures for a rate hike in October has risen to 69.7%.
The projected path implied by the contracts extends all the way to June 2027.
The terminal interest rate falls between 4.75% and 5%.
Long-end yields are staying at elevated levels.
As rates don’t come down, assets with the longest duration get squeezed first.
Bitcoin’s price follows along this line.
The directions of price and interest rates are opposite.
The selling pressure doesn’t originate from on-chain activity.
It’s brought in by macro funds.
Leverage is pulled back first, and spot holdings are passively reduced.
At times like this, on-chain data is actually lagging.
On-chain activity hasn’t collapsed, yet prices still fall.
Look at the two indicators separately so you don’t get misled.
The market keeps pushing back the timing of rate cuts.
Each push triggers another repricing of risk assets.
The magnitude of the repricing depends on the length of duration.
For crypto, the dominant variable is interest rates, not the narrative.
If rates don’t loosen, any rebound will be pushed back down.
Do you think that 69.7% for October will actually be realized? Let’s discuss in the comments.
