Hello everyone, if you haven't already lost your mind from the reactive Shaheds, then here you go—an investment outlook)

Ahead of us lies one of the busiest macro weeks of the quarter, and even its closing one. In a few days we'll receive data on inflation, investor sentiment, the labor market, and data on manufacturing activity. In essence, it's almost the entire set of data that the Fed will look at ahead of the meeting on October 28.

👉🏻 Tuesday, September 29th. CB Consumer Confidence is released (forecast 90.1 vs 89.4 — they expect a slight improvement) and JOLTS job openings (forecast 7.23M vs 7.27M, i.e. a bit lower). JOLTS matters as an indicator of a cooling labor market—if there are fewer vacancies, it’s an argument for a softer Fed policy.

👉🏻 On Wednesday, the main inflation test: Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite metric. The market expects a small acceleration to 3.4% y/y. The same day, ADP employment data is released, along with the third estimate of GDP and major annual revisions of U.S. statistics.

👉🏻 On Thursday, manufacturing: ISM will show how factories are doing and, even more importantly right now, how quickly their costs are rising. If the price component accelerates again, that’s another argument for the Fed not to rush the pause.

👉🏻 And on Friday—the main event of the week, the jobs market report. They expect about 98k new jobs versus 162k the month before. And here again is our favorite inverted logic: a weaker labor market can support stocks because it reduces the need for another rate hike. Strong figures—on the contrary.
From corporate events, I’d specifically look at

Corporate segment. Micron on Wednesday after the close. This is one of the key tests for AI infrastructure and demand for memory. After the market’s strong rally, it won’t be enough to just deliver a good report—what’s also needed is a strong outlook.

Plus, we have the end of the quarter, many speeches by Fed officials, and the yield on 10-year bonds above 5%.

So the bottom line is simple: this week, the market will look at every release through one question—does it point to yet another rate hike, or instead gives the Fed a reason to take a pause? Volatility, it seems, will be more than enough, so the main focus now isn’t to guess every move, but to manage portfolio risks properly.

Have a great week, as much as possible, and profitable trades.

Mykyta Guppal | ProInvestments

#CorePCESignalsShift #JobsReport #FedRates #Micron #Inflationdata