In two nights, 19 violations boats were hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military said there were 12 on Friday night and 7 on Saturday night—all for not transiting the approved waterways. Brent only inched up to 99.5, gaining half a percentage point; WTI is stuck at 94.4. As the gunfire escalated, oil prices stayed put. Brent contract open interest also rose another 0.8 points in a single day. The shorts are propped up under the ships. When trading opens on Monday, we’ll see how this account gets settled.
On the other side, on Hyperliquid, the short seller Loracle is running a rent-collection business. He opened a position with over 100,000 HYPE short orders at 64.7, liquidation at 123.63, and an unrealized loss of $2.97 million. But funding has already paid him $550,000 in “salary.” On-chain unrealized losses have shrunk to $9.82 million. At the current price of 93.2—still more than 30% away from liquidation—this trade is even more watchable than a story.
More specifically, in the U.S. Treasury market, the 10-year yield at 5.17% is one full point higher than at the start of the year. This week, SoftBank issued more than $11 billion in junk bonds; the 7-year coupon has been squeezed down to 9.75%. JPMorgan estimates that by 2030, AI will need to borrow $4.1 trillion. The more expensive the money gets, the more the narrative continues. Meta jumped 13 points as soon as it rolled out new products. Institutional options flow is at three times last September’s level. The only people worried about being too expensive are the ones issuing debt.
In commodities, Barrick and the Malian union reached an agreement, and a planned strike for Monday was canceled. This supply-side negative shock landed on gold with barely a ripple. The gold price—4287—gets stuck between 4285 and 4289, narrow as a slit. Meanwhile, futures open interest quietly added another 0.8 points in a day. Prices don’t move; the chips do. Brent at 99.5 is sitting on the heat from 19 boats, waiting for Monday. One side watches the central bank, the other watches the gun barrel—both answers are locked in at Monday’s open.
#地缘政治 $XAU $BZ $HYPE
On the other side, on Hyperliquid, the short seller Loracle is running a rent-collection business. He opened a position with over 100,000 HYPE short orders at 64.7, liquidation at 123.63, and an unrealized loss of $2.97 million. But funding has already paid him $550,000 in “salary.” On-chain unrealized losses have shrunk to $9.82 million. At the current price of 93.2—still more than 30% away from liquidation—this trade is even more watchable than a story.
More specifically, in the U.S. Treasury market, the 10-year yield at 5.17% is one full point higher than at the start of the year. This week, SoftBank issued more than $11 billion in junk bonds; the 7-year coupon has been squeezed down to 9.75%. JPMorgan estimates that by 2030, AI will need to borrow $4.1 trillion. The more expensive the money gets, the more the narrative continues. Meta jumped 13 points as soon as it rolled out new products. Institutional options flow is at three times last September’s level. The only people worried about being too expensive are the ones issuing debt.
In commodities, Barrick and the Malian union reached an agreement, and a planned strike for Monday was canceled. This supply-side negative shock landed on gold with barely a ripple. The gold price—4287—gets stuck between 4285 and 4289, narrow as a slit. Meanwhile, futures open interest quietly added another 0.8 points in a day. Prices don’t move; the chips do. Brent at 99.5 is sitting on the heat from 19 boats, waiting for Monday. One side watches the central bank, the other watches the gun barrel—both answers are locked in at Monday’s open.
#地缘政治 $XAU $BZ $HYPE