For this week’s PCE and nonfarm payrolls, I’d rather see whether the data will “clash.”
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the target range for the federal funds rate is now 3.75%–4%. So the key this week isn’t guessing whether it will pivot, but whether the subsequent data will support maintaining high rates.
First, look at the August PCE to be released on September 30. The prior July data showed that headline PCE rose 3.7% year over year, and core PCE rose 3.3% year over year—there’s still a way to go before inflation reaches the 2% target. Next comes the September nonfarm payroll report on October 2. Both sets of data haven’t been released yet, so it’s too early to write “cooling inflation” or “weakening employment” in stone.
The most worth watching is a scenario where the data is strong in one area and weak in another: if inflation stays high while employment starts to soften, the Fed will have an even tougher time deciding, and the market may keep tugging back and forth between competing expectations. For BTC, I’ll first see how Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar move after the data comes out, and then whether the price can hold steady—not just chase the jump or drop in that one moment the numbers hit.
There may be opportunities for volatility this week, but position sizing and leverage need to leave room for sudden spikes.
The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the target range for the federal funds rate is now 3.75%–4%. So the key this week isn’t guessing whether it will pivot, but whether the subsequent data will support maintaining high rates.
First, look at the August PCE to be released on September 30. The prior July data showed that headline PCE rose 3.7% year over year, and core PCE rose 3.3% year over year—there’s still a way to go before inflation reaches the 2% target. Next comes the September nonfarm payroll report on October 2. Both sets of data haven’t been released yet, so it’s too early to write “cooling inflation” or “weakening employment” in stone.
The most worth watching is a scenario where the data is strong in one area and weak in another: if inflation stays high while employment starts to soften, the Fed will have an even tougher time deciding, and the market may keep tugging back and forth between competing expectations. For BTC, I’ll first see how Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar move after the data comes out, and then whether the price can hold steady—not just chase the jump or drop in that one moment the numbers hit.
There may be opportunities for volatility this week, but position sizing and leverage need to leave room for sudden spikes.
