Gold falls to 4,177.
This is the real-time price of the Binance XAU/USDT perpetual contract,
It’s also the lowest in the past 30 trading days.
What’s the status of your position right now?
I guess that’s how it is: you’re down, but you didn’t exit.
Because you believe it will come back.
——
First, see how much it dropped.
Starting from September 3 at 4,514,
In less than a month, it dropped 7.5%.
You’ll go search for the reason.
The answer I found is: inflation expectations are cooling,
Gold’s safe-haven function has stopped working.
This explanation is wrong.
——
Look at two numbers.
Real interest rate: January 29 at 1.89%,
It’s now 2.83%, which is 94 basis points higher.
Inflation expectations: Jan 29 at 2.35%,
Right now it’s 2.34%, unchanged.
——
Have you found the problem?
What’s suppressing gold is not inflation expectations.
Over these six months, inflation expectations have changed almost nothing.
What moves things is the real interest rate.
——
Gold has no interest.
If you hold it, your only opportunity cost is,
That’s the risk-free real return.
This cost has risen by 94 basis points.
Gold doesn’t need any bad news,
It will go down on its own.
——
So when people say, “when inflation comes back, gold will rise,”
It doesn’t hold true at this stage.
Inflation expectations don’t even need to come back.
It only needs real interest rates to stop rising.
These two things are completely different.
You’ve been waiting for the wrong signal.
——
look one layer further down.
This time, how much of the drop is thanks to the dollar?
In one month, the dollar index is up 2%.
Swap gold to be priced in euros,
The drawdown has shrunk from 6.5% to 4.2%.
Converted, the US dollar explains about one-third.
the remaining two-thirds is the real interest rate.
Not the dollar, and not inflation.
——
Now let’s talk about the most critical layer.
Prices are falling, but positions haven’t moved.
Binance XAU/USDT Perpetual:
Large-holder positioning: 71% are longs.
The number of large-holder accounts: 87% are long,
Shorts are only 13%.
——
Over the past 24 hours,
Across the entire network, gold perpetual liquidations total $420,000.
Of this, 97.8% are longs liquidated.
The funding rate is still positive.
——
Look at one even stranger number.
The price is hitting a 30-day low,
But open interest is rising.
From Sep 27 to Sep 28,
Open interest rose from 109,690 to 112,221.
Up 2.3%.
——
Translate it once.
It’s not that the longs have exited.
Someone keeps adding while it’s dropping.
And 87% of accounts are long.
And the positions that get added are most likely longs as well.
——
This is gold’s most dangerous part right now.
It’s not that it’s down 7.5%.
After it drops,
Positions haven’t even been cleared,
Still piling it up.
——
You might ask: so where is the bottom?
I don’t have the answer to this, and nobody has it right now either.
I only know one thing.
When an asset’s decline reason is
When it’s a variable like “real interest rates,” which can last a very long time,
Use “it has fallen enough” as the buy rationale,
It’s the most expensive bet.
——
So what should you do right now?
First, delete the script of “wait for inflation.”
Inflation expectations haven’t moved—this isn’t the variable you should be watching right now.
What you should be watching is at 20:30 on Sep 30.
August core PCE.
That number determines whether real interest rates go up or down.
——
Second, don’t use the cost basis as a decision-making premise.
“I bought at 4,600,”
This sentence has no meaning to the market.
The market doesn’t know your cost.
Your cost is your problem, not its.
——
Third, look at positioning—not the price.
Price made a new low, yet positions increased by 2.3%.
This means the people who should leave haven’t left yet.
Wait for this number to drop first, then talk about opportunities.
——
Fourth, look at silver together.
Under the same definition:
Silver: -7.5% over one month,
Gold: -6.5%.
Silver is falling even harder,
Because it’s the one on the same chain with higher elasticity.
If this chain is being repaired, silver will move first.
If it hasn’t moved, it means the chain hasn’t been fixed yet.
——
I know this sounds painful.
What you want to hear most right now is,
it should be “it’s almost at the bottom very soon.”
But I don’t want to tell you that.
——
The market doesn’t owe you an explanation,
And it doesn’t owe you a rebound.
The data—only if you’re willing to look at it.
——
Wait for real interest rates to turn.
No matter inflation, no matter cost basis.
wait for the data.
——MK Shouyue
