The biggest question is whether this market should really be up or not. Open interest surged by about 20% within seven hours, with the contract notional value rising in sync. But the price then put a four-hour bearish candle that crushed the earlier bullish one, and even the moving averages can’t reclaim their positions—this is a structure of falling prices on increasing positions, a clear sign of explicit distribution, not a shakeout. On the spot side, it’s even more straightforward: there’s not a single thing of net inflow from large orders, and the buy pressure is being propped up only by retail traders placing limit orders. The order book is so thin it looks like it’s made of paper—what are you supposed to use to absorb all these newly added short positions? Even the funding rate has already dipped into negative territory, yet the longs are still holding on—holding up for whom? With a market like this, the shorts are basically guaranteed to win. As soon as the bearish candles stretch a bit further, the longs will start to panic on their own.