The Fed hasn’t raised rates yet, but the market has already started preparing for it.
CME FedWatch is currently pricing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in October at approximately 66.4%.
At the same time, 10-year Treasuries rose to 5.23%—the highest level since 2007. And MOVE, the bond volatility index, jumped by about 30% over the week.
For risk assets, this is an important backdrop: more expensive money and higher volatility in government bonds mean tighter financial conditions.
But there’s an interesting nuance here. Bitcoin still isn’t showing the same level of panic: its expected volatility remains close to its annual lows.
So I wouldn’t write, “Yields have risen—$BTC will fall right now.” The market is showing a different picture so far: macro conditions are becoming stricter, but crypto hasn’t yet synced with this stress.
This divergence is exactly what I’m interested in. Because the real signal won’t appear when MOVE just rises, but when risk assets begin to respond to it in a systematic way.
If you want to break down macro without magical cause-and-effect links, follow @MoonMan567
CME FedWatch is currently pricing the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in October at approximately 66.4%.
At the same time, 10-year Treasuries rose to 5.23%—the highest level since 2007. And MOVE, the bond volatility index, jumped by about 30% over the week.
For risk assets, this is an important backdrop: more expensive money and higher volatility in government bonds mean tighter financial conditions.
But there’s an interesting nuance here. Bitcoin still isn’t showing the same level of panic: its expected volatility remains close to its annual lows.
So I wouldn’t write, “Yields have risen—$BTC will fall right now.” The market is showing a different picture so far: macro conditions are becoming stricter, but crypto hasn’t yet synced with this stress.
This divergence is exactly what I’m interested in. Because the real signal won’t appear when MOVE just rises, but when risk assets begin to respond to it in a systematic way.
If you want to break down macro without magical cause-and-effect links, follow @MoonMan567
