🔥 Could the Bank of Japan be about to “step on the accelerator”? The probability of another rate hike in October is rising!
On September 28, former BOJ senior monetary policy official Kazuo Momma said that while the normal pace might be a rate hike every three months, the chance of consecutive rate hikes in October still stands at 20%—30%. He believes that Japan’s core inflation is not only unlikely to cool noticeably over the coming months, but there is also a risk that it could continue to move upward—meaning the BOJ may need to tighten policy faster.
Even more noteworthy, Momma expects that by mid-next year, Japan’s interest rate could rise to around 2%, implying there is room for several more 25-basis-point hikes after that.
For the crypto world, don’t take this lightly 👀. Japan has long been a major source of low-cost global funding. If JPY interest rates keep climbing, some capital may start reducing allocations to high-risk assets, and even unwind carry-trade positions. That means BTC, ETH, and highly leveraged altcoins could all feel liquidity pressure.
In simple terms: before, money was cheap and everyone dared to push; now Japan is also tightening, and the market’s “free liquidity” may be getting scarcer. 🚨
So what’s really worth watching next isn’t just whether the BOJ will hike rates—it’s whether JPY funding starts flowing back and whether global risk-asset leverage starts to decline. That’s what will have the more direct impact on the crypto market.
On September 28, former BOJ senior monetary policy official Kazuo Momma said that while the normal pace might be a rate hike every three months, the chance of consecutive rate hikes in October still stands at 20%—30%. He believes that Japan’s core inflation is not only unlikely to cool noticeably over the coming months, but there is also a risk that it could continue to move upward—meaning the BOJ may need to tighten policy faster.
Even more noteworthy, Momma expects that by mid-next year, Japan’s interest rate could rise to around 2%, implying there is room for several more 25-basis-point hikes after that.
For the crypto world, don’t take this lightly 👀. Japan has long been a major source of low-cost global funding. If JPY interest rates keep climbing, some capital may start reducing allocations to high-risk assets, and even unwind carry-trade positions. That means BTC, ETH, and highly leveraged altcoins could all feel liquidity pressure.
In simple terms: before, money was cheap and everyone dared to push; now Japan is also tightening, and the market’s “free liquidity” may be getting scarcer. 🚨
So what’s really worth watching next isn’t just whether the BOJ will hike rates—it’s whether JPY funding starts flowing back and whether global risk-asset leverage starts to decline. That’s what will have the more direct impact on the crypto market.
