🚨 $202B US BOND: DON’T CONFUSE IT WITH “LIQUIDITY INJECTION”
The US Treasury issued ~$202B, but $143.58B in old debt is maturing → net issuance is only about $58.42B. Most of it is refinancing.
🔹 Sept 30: watch SOFR/repo, funding perps, order book depth, and BTC ETF flows.
🔹 August: BTC had surged when the US increased buybacks of long-term bonds, helping lower long-term yields.
The two events work through different mechanisms: Sept 30 = debt rollover, while August = a change in bond purchase demand.
So don’t rush to conclude that $202B will cause a $BTC pump/dump. Data after Sept 30 is what matters.
The US Treasury issued ~$202B, but $143.58B in old debt is maturing → net issuance is only about $58.42B. Most of it is refinancing.
🔹 Sept 30: watch SOFR/repo, funding perps, order book depth, and BTC ETF flows.
🔹 August: BTC had surged when the US increased buybacks of long-term bonds, helping lower long-term yields.
The two events work through different mechanisms: Sept 30 = debt rollover, while August = a change in bond purchase demand.
So don’t rush to conclude that $202B will cause a $BTC pump/dump. Data after Sept 30 is what matters.