On Monday’s morning Asia session, first let’s talk about the big picture: Trump rejected Iran’s peace plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped straight up 1.5% at the open. This Middle East situation looks like it’s far from over.
My view is simple: the geopolitical risk premium can’t come down in the short term. Iran’s foreign minister has said it is “fully prepared to resume war.” Trump is tough-talking, but indirect negotiations in New York still leave a crack in the door. As long as oil prices stay elevated, inflation expectations won’t be suppressed, and the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts has to be discounted. That is a real, direct drag on risk assets like $BTC .
But if you look at it from another angle: Iran’s inflation has reportedly surged to 318%, and the script of the local currency becoming basically worthless keeps playing out again and again. In this kind of environment, the “crypto as an inflation-hedge safe haven” narrative will likely be brought up repeatedly, and long-term capital may not necessarily leave.
$ETH is still moving with the overall market for now—don’t expect an independent行情 in the short term.
As for operations, my advice: this week has too many variables, and Asia-session volatility may increase. Don’t chase one-sided trades—keep your position sizing under control, and wait for the U.S. session to give a clearer direction before acting.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #地缘政治 #BTC #Cryptocurrency
My view is simple: the geopolitical risk premium can’t come down in the short term. Iran’s foreign minister has said it is “fully prepared to resume war.” Trump is tough-talking, but indirect negotiations in New York still leave a crack in the door. As long as oil prices stay elevated, inflation expectations won’t be suppressed, and the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts has to be discounted. That is a real, direct drag on risk assets like $BTC .
But if you look at it from another angle: Iran’s inflation has reportedly surged to 318%, and the script of the local currency becoming basically worthless keeps playing out again and again. In this kind of environment, the “crypto as an inflation-hedge safe haven” narrative will likely be brought up repeatedly, and long-term capital may not necessarily leave.
$ETH is still moving with the overall market for now—don’t expect an independent行情 in the short term.
As for operations, my advice: this week has too many variables, and Asia-session volatility may increase. Don’t chase one-sided trades—keep your position sizing under control, and wait for the U.S. session to give a clearer direction before acting.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #以太坊 #地缘政治 #BTC #Cryptocurrency