In the next 6—24 hours, expect choppy consolidation with a slight bearish tilt; the main path is about 62%. $UNI The current leg of downward pressure has already pushed the price toward around 9.37, making the short-term sellers dominant. However, the four-hour uptrend structure hasn’t been fully broken yet, so I’m more inclined to say “weak first, then watch how support reacts,” rather than framing it as already having entered a one-way downtrend.

The four-hour chart provides a very clear counterargument: the most recent set of swing highs and swing lows is still higher than the previous set, and the latest closed candlestick is at 9.68—still above the upward EMA20. The intermediate structure still has some heat left. Right now, this wave first falls into a deep retracement within an uptrend structure. Only if subsequent four-hour closes continue to press below the moving average will the bearish bias upgrade from a short-term rhythm into a larger-scale reversal.

But the one-hour chart has already changed its face. The latest closing price of 9.514 has fallen below the two short- and medium-term moving averages. The most recent set of highs and lows has moved down together, and both moving averages have started to turn. The trading volume for the final bearish candle is about 2.74 times the average volume of the previous five moving-average periods and 1.89 times that of the previous twenty. Over the past 20 sessions, the ratio of up-volume to down-volume is only 0.73. The break below the low coincided with a surge in sell volume, indicating this is not a quiet pullback, but active selling pressure being released. More importantly, the sell volume appeared when the price repeatedly lost the hourly lows—not during sideways two-way churn near the top. As long as rebound volume continues to be less than sell volume, the short-term rhythm will remain controlled by the sellers.

The main path is that the rebound fails to reclaim 9.68, and price tests 9.37 again. If a full hourly close breaks below, the next leg is more likely to return to the 9.10—9.24 trading zone. The reverse path is about 38%: if the hourly line first closes back above 9.68, and then—on increased volume—stands above 9.81, it would suggest the old support has completed its takeover, and price may have a chance to revisit around 10.00; this latter scenario is also the invalidation level for the bearish short-term view.

Compress the conclusion into one sentence: the four-hour trend hasn’t died, but on the one-hour chart selling pressure has already taken the upper hand. There’s no need to guess what some “operator” is doing—just watch whether 9.37 can hold on a close, and then whether the rebound has real trading volume backing it up. These two things will determine whether UNI is only undergoing a deep pullback or whether it starts a longer downswing.