XMR official announcement: custom unlock timing will be phased out｜Old locked transactions won’t all unlock uniformly today｜Around $541 I’ll wait first
My attitude is to control risk first, and not turn the preview of wallet rule changes into a supply shock for today. When Monero’s price is weakening, the more important thing is to differentiate between “how locked outputs will be handled in the future” and “how many coins are being sold right now.” This round of scanning did not find any confirmable new mainnet activation messages. Below is a look back at an official arrangement that’s still worth checking—without packaging it as a breaking-news event.
The facts come from the Monero website’s May 10 announcement: the custom transaction unlock time feature is intended to be deprecated at the consensus layer along with the FCMP++ fork. The notice also states that at the time, relay rules already existed among nodes that prevented transactions with custom unlock times from entering the transaction pool. These are two different layers: nodes not relaying it does not mean the consensus layer has permanently banned it. The text also explicitly clarifies that, at the time of writing, the FCMP++ fork date had not yet been set. I can’t derive the conclusion that something has already been activated today.
More easily misread are old transactions. The announcement emphasizes that previously created locked transactions are unaffected and still unlock according to the time set when they were created. For transactions created after June 1, whose unlock time is later than the future fork, the announcement describes that they unlock when the fork block arrives. Here, you have two conditions—transaction creation time and the future fork—so it is absolutely not “all locked positions release today,” and it is also not new issuance. I have no data proving that this leads to concentrated sell orders.
Open discussion from the research lab also shows that this is a long-term engineering issue, not an attack on the whole network that was just discovered. It concerns the spendable state of locked outputs, privacy characteristics, and the wallet’s processing burden. For ordinary coin holders, what I care about most is whether the wallet version supports the expected rules, whether the outputs I received are truly spendable, and whether the software source can be verified. A wallet showing a balance should not be taken as balance that can be spent immediately; an exchange showing a balance adds another layer—withdrawal permissions on the platform.
Why would it affect the market? Rule simplification may reduce wallet implementation complexity and usage friction. That’s a mechanism-based projection, not already-measured adoption growth. On the contrary, if users misunderstand the compatibility boundaries, they will bear time costs and operational risks. Whether a technical improvement has significance for price requires an official version, the actual activation, and real usage data; you can’t infer new buy demand directly from the announcement headline. The current hot-list USD interest rate and other coins’ listing messages also can’t substitute as evidence of XMR’s own funding.
In this round, Kraken’s XMR/USD recheck snapshot is around $540.56; the 24-hour range is $540 to $562.95. The price is still near the lower end of the range. This suggests the rebound isn’t solid, but it does not prove that the decline was caused by the May announcement. Watch whether $548 can be effectively reclaimed, whether $552 and $555 can form subsequent follow-through; $540 is the observation line that was meant to be canceled first.
If this were my own trade: I would not participate right now; my position would be zero. I would only consider a low-risk, unleveraged spot attempt. If the hourly close holds above $548, then after a pullback it holds $546 to $548, and the spot channel and withdrawable status are normal, I would enter with at most 0.3% of total funds. Reduce by half at $552, and close the remainder at $555. If after entry it drops to $542 immediately stop-losses, or if two consecutive hourly candles close below $546 then exit everything. Before entering, if price breaks below $540, the plan is canceled—you can’t add on while it keeps falling. If the actual implementation turns out to be inconsistent with the announced compatibility of old transactions, I would withdraw the engineering-improvement judgment. Plans that never trigger don’t count as trades or profits.
Source: Monero official website May 10 announcement, research lab discussion #78, Kraken public market data. #XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My attitude is to control risk first, and not turn the preview of wallet rule changes into a supply shock for today. When Monero’s price is weakening, the more important thing is to differentiate between “how locked outputs will be handled in the future” and “how many coins are being sold right now.” This round of scanning did not find any confirmable new mainnet activation messages. Below is a look back at an official arrangement that’s still worth checking—without packaging it as a breaking-news event.
The facts come from the Monero website’s May 10 announcement: the custom transaction unlock time feature is intended to be deprecated at the consensus layer along with the FCMP++ fork. The notice also states that at the time, relay rules already existed among nodes that prevented transactions with custom unlock times from entering the transaction pool. These are two different layers: nodes not relaying it does not mean the consensus layer has permanently banned it. The text also explicitly clarifies that, at the time of writing, the FCMP++ fork date had not yet been set. I can’t derive the conclusion that something has already been activated today.
More easily misread are old transactions. The announcement emphasizes that previously created locked transactions are unaffected and still unlock according to the time set when they were created. For transactions created after June 1, whose unlock time is later than the future fork, the announcement describes that they unlock when the fork block arrives. Here, you have two conditions—transaction creation time and the future fork—so it is absolutely not “all locked positions release today,” and it is also not new issuance. I have no data proving that this leads to concentrated sell orders.
Open discussion from the research lab also shows that this is a long-term engineering issue, not an attack on the whole network that was just discovered. It concerns the spendable state of locked outputs, privacy characteristics, and the wallet’s processing burden. For ordinary coin holders, what I care about most is whether the wallet version supports the expected rules, whether the outputs I received are truly spendable, and whether the software source can be verified. A wallet showing a balance should not be taken as balance that can be spent immediately; an exchange showing a balance adds another layer—withdrawal permissions on the platform.
Why would it affect the market? Rule simplification may reduce wallet implementation complexity and usage friction. That’s a mechanism-based projection, not already-measured adoption growth. On the contrary, if users misunderstand the compatibility boundaries, they will bear time costs and operational risks. Whether a technical improvement has significance for price requires an official version, the actual activation, and real usage data; you can’t infer new buy demand directly from the announcement headline. The current hot-list USD interest rate and other coins’ listing messages also can’t substitute as evidence of XMR’s own funding.
In this round, Kraken’s XMR/USD recheck snapshot is around $540.56; the 24-hour range is $540 to $562.95. The price is still near the lower end of the range. This suggests the rebound isn’t solid, but it does not prove that the decline was caused by the May announcement. Watch whether $548 can be effectively reclaimed, whether $552 and $555 can form subsequent follow-through; $540 is the observation line that was meant to be canceled first.
If this were my own trade: I would not participate right now; my position would be zero. I would only consider a low-risk, unleveraged spot attempt. If the hourly close holds above $548, then after a pullback it holds $546 to $548, and the spot channel and withdrawable status are normal, I would enter with at most 0.3% of total funds. Reduce by half at $552, and close the remainder at $555. If after entry it drops to $542 immediately stop-losses, or if two consecutive hourly candles close below $546 then exit everything. Before entering, if price breaks below $540, the plan is canceled—you can’t add on while it keeps falling. If the actual implementation turns out to be inconsistent with the announced compatibility of old transactions, I would withdraw the engineering-improvement judgment. Plans that never trigger don’t count as trades or profits.
Source: Monero official website May 10 announcement, research lab discussion #78, Kraken public market data. #XMR
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
