#Arthur Hayes made a fairly sharp assessment: Saylor’s “company hoarding coins” model has already passed its peak.
The reasoning isn’t complicated—back when Strategy became the main channel for buying BTC, it was because ordinary people didn’t have a more direct, easier option. Now that spot ETFs are widely available, people who want to allocate to bitcoin have a lower-cost, cleaner-structured path, so the necessity of “buying a company’s stock instead” fades.
This doesn’t mean it’s selling; it just means its scarcity is no longer there.
The value of a business model often comes from “others can’t do it.” Once substitutes appear, the premium has to be re-priced.
For these coin-holding companies, it’s not enough to just look at how many coins they’ve accumulated—you have to see whether they still have any non-substitutable entry-value.
The reasoning isn’t complicated—back when Strategy became the main channel for buying BTC, it was because ordinary people didn’t have a more direct, easier option. Now that spot ETFs are widely available, people who want to allocate to bitcoin have a lower-cost, cleaner-structured path, so the necessity of “buying a company’s stock instead” fades.
This doesn’t mean it’s selling; it just means its scarcity is no longer there.
The value of a business model often comes from “others can’t do it.” Once substitutes appear, the premium has to be re-priced.
For these coin-holding companies, it’s not enough to just look at how many coins they’ve accumulated—you have to see whether they still have any non-substitutable entry-value.