What are large-cap stocks waiting for? Worth talking through
Don’t use last week’s rate-cut story to explain today’s market.
First lay out the numbers on the board, then share your view.
Nasdaq 27,069 (5-day +2.06%, Yahoo)
VIX 14.87 (5-day +0.00%)
Gold 4,321 (5-day -1.26%, Yahoo)
My take: the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.18%, and in the next 5 days it could rise another +4.45%. The long end is pulling liquidity; the valuation narratives for growth stocks and BTC will have to step aside.
Crypto comparison: BTC 84,460 (24h +0.43%), ETH 2,690 (+0.01%). ETH’s 24h gain of +0.01% is weaker than BTC’s +0.43%; the exchange rate is 0.03184. Funds are shrinking into BTC—watch first on altcoins’ right-hand side.
Next, what to watch: VIX is 14.87 right now. If it breaks above 18, I’ll cut the contract position in half—I won’t argue with the US stock market’s closing price.
My position: on the sidelines. The price hasn’t picked a side, and leverage hasn’t been paid for. Opening a position now is doing work for the exchange.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-denominated / Yahoo daily lines (5-day move). Missing numbers don’t get filled in.
Would you dare add on this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Observation
Data Snapshot (same round as the body; the missing part is the divider line):
BTC 84,460 +0.43% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,690 +0.01% ETH/BTC 0.03184
S&P 7,743 +1.21% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,069 +2.06% Yahoo 5-day
US Dollar 101 +0.43% DXY 5-day
VIX 14.87 +0.00% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0010% Open interest 7.97B (24h -0.02) Long/Short 1.2391 Binance U-denominated
Supporting note: out there, people are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I only use it as background—the conclusion still relies on the numbers in the body text.
Personal opinion—see the source numbers in the main text. Not a trading instruction.
Don’t use last week’s rate-cut story to explain today’s market.
First lay out the numbers on the board, then share your view.
Nasdaq 27,069 (5-day +2.06%, Yahoo)
VIX 14.87 (5-day +0.00%)
Gold 4,321 (5-day -1.26%, Yahoo)
My take: the 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.18%, and in the next 5 days it could rise another +4.45%. The long end is pulling liquidity; the valuation narratives for growth stocks and BTC will have to step aside.
Crypto comparison: BTC 84,460 (24h +0.43%), ETH 2,690 (+0.01%). ETH’s 24h gain of +0.01% is weaker than BTC’s +0.43%; the exchange rate is 0.03184. Funds are shrinking into BTC—watch first on altcoins’ right-hand side.
Next, what to watch: VIX is 14.87 right now. If it breaks above 18, I’ll cut the contract position in half—I won’t argue with the US stock market’s closing price.
My position: on the sidelines. The price hasn’t picked a side, and leverage hasn’t been paid for. Opening a position now is doing work for the exchange.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-denominated / Yahoo daily lines (5-day move). Missing numbers don’t get filled in.
Would you dare add on this funding rate?
#美股 #BTC #Trading Observation
Data Snapshot (same round as the body; the missing part is the divider line):
BTC 84,460 +0.43% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,690 +0.01% ETH/BTC 0.03184
S&P 7,743 +1.21% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 27,069 +2.06% Yahoo 5-day
US Dollar 101 +0.43% DXY 5-day
VIX 14.87 +0.00% Yahoo
Funding rate 0.0010% Open interest 7.97B (24h -0.02) Long/Short 1.2391 Binance U-denominated
Supporting note: out there, people are discussing “\"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks\" - Google News”. I only use it as background—the conclusion still relies on the numbers in the body text.
Personal opinion—see the source numbers in the main text. Not a trading instruction.