SOL基金周净流入约1.88亿美元｜BSOL filing reveals that redemption of staking is not immediately available｜Around $123 I’ll wait
My stance is to acknowledge that institutional channels bring in additional flows, but not to misread “net inflows” as equivalent spot buying orders at the same time, and not to treat staking rewards as risk-free interest. On Binance Square’s current hot list there is #SOLSpotETFWeeklyInflow$188M. According to Farside’s published table, summing the daily values (rounded) from Sep 21 to Sep 25 is about $188.1 million; among them, Sep 25 is $86.7 million. The hot-list figures differ slightly from the table’s precision, so I describe it as “about $188M.” Last round I talked about where the funds were concentrated in which fund; this time, more important than the inflow is how the fund manages SOL and redemption liquidity after the funds come in.
Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF’s 2Q 10-Q submitted to the SEC states that fund shares can be created and redeemed by Authorized Participants using SOL in-kind or cash. Cash subscriptions require buying the corresponding SOL; in-kind subscriptions allow participants to directly deliver SOL. Therefore, published fund flow tables cannot be mechanically equated with exchange spot order book buying.
The filing also says most of its SOL is intended to participate in staking, and staking rewards are paid in SOL and will fluctuate. The network cooling-off period disclosed at the time is generally 2 to 8 days, with an additional roughly 2-day unlock period; staked SOL cannot be withdrawn immediately. This is the fund’s own risk disclosure, and it does not mean that every Solana ETF’s asset allocation is the same, nor that investors cannot sell fund shares on an exchange. Selling shares in the secondary market and redeeming the underlying assets at the fund level are two different things.
There are two sides to how this transmits to SOL: ongoing net subscriptions could increase custody and staking demand, reducing some immediately available float; but if the market sharply reverses, the timing of subscription/redemption, unstaking/unlocking, Authorized Participants’ quotes, and spot market depth will all affect how prices transmit. Staking also adds validator and operational risks. You can’t infer that an ETF is necessarily more attractive solely from the nominal yield.
At the time of writing, Kraken’s SOL/USD is about $123.05; over the past 24 hours it’s high $124.91 and low $120.05, which is still slightly higher than the open of $121.37, but down from roughly $124.2 in the previous round. You can’t attribute this move upward/downward to the ETF data alone. What matters is whether the next trading day’s flows can continue, and whether price reclaims above $124.9.
If I were trading myself, I wouldn’t participate. The direction would only consider low/no-leverage spot longs. Only if two full 15-minute candlesticks close above $125, a pullback to $124.3–$125 holds, and there are no new fund or on-chain security negative announcements, I would enter with 0.3% of total capital. Then at $127, I’d cut the position by half; at $130–$131, I’d close the rest. After entry, if the next 15-minute close recaptures above $123, I’d cut the position by half first. If it breaks below $121.8, I’d stop out and fully close. If, before entry, it breaks below $120, then this plan is invalid. If the next trading day flows clearly turn into net outflows, even if price briefly breaks out, I won’t chase.
The hot list is just a lead for attention; trading requires validating both the subscription/redemption mechanism and the price action at the same time.
#SOLSpotETFWeeklyInflow$188M #SOL
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is to acknowledge that institutional channels bring in additional flows, but not to misread “net inflows” as equivalent spot buying orders at the same time, and not to treat staking rewards as risk-free interest. On Binance Square’s current hot list there is #SOLSpotETFWeeklyInflow$188M. According to Farside’s published table, summing the daily values (rounded) from Sep 21 to Sep 25 is about $188.1 million; among them, Sep 25 is $86.7 million. The hot-list figures differ slightly from the table’s precision, so I describe it as “about $188M.” Last round I talked about where the funds were concentrated in which fund; this time, more important than the inflow is how the fund manages SOL and redemption liquidity after the funds come in.
Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF’s 2Q 10-Q submitted to the SEC states that fund shares can be created and redeemed by Authorized Participants using SOL in-kind or cash. Cash subscriptions require buying the corresponding SOL; in-kind subscriptions allow participants to directly deliver SOL. Therefore, published fund flow tables cannot be mechanically equated with exchange spot order book buying.
The filing also says most of its SOL is intended to participate in staking, and staking rewards are paid in SOL and will fluctuate. The network cooling-off period disclosed at the time is generally 2 to 8 days, with an additional roughly 2-day unlock period; staked SOL cannot be withdrawn immediately. This is the fund’s own risk disclosure, and it does not mean that every Solana ETF’s asset allocation is the same, nor that investors cannot sell fund shares on an exchange. Selling shares in the secondary market and redeeming the underlying assets at the fund level are two different things.
There are two sides to how this transmits to SOL: ongoing net subscriptions could increase custody and staking demand, reducing some immediately available float; but if the market sharply reverses, the timing of subscription/redemption, unstaking/unlocking, Authorized Participants’ quotes, and spot market depth will all affect how prices transmit. Staking also adds validator and operational risks. You can’t infer that an ETF is necessarily more attractive solely from the nominal yield.
At the time of writing, Kraken’s SOL/USD is about $123.05; over the past 24 hours it’s high $124.91 and low $120.05, which is still slightly higher than the open of $121.37, but down from roughly $124.2 in the previous round. You can’t attribute this move upward/downward to the ETF data alone. What matters is whether the next trading day’s flows can continue, and whether price reclaims above $124.9.
If I were trading myself, I wouldn’t participate. The direction would only consider low/no-leverage spot longs. Only if two full 15-minute candlesticks close above $125, a pullback to $124.3–$125 holds, and there are no new fund or on-chain security negative announcements, I would enter with 0.3% of total capital. Then at $127, I’d cut the position by half; at $130–$131, I’d close the rest. After entry, if the next 15-minute close recaptures above $123, I’d cut the position by half first. If it breaks below $121.8, I’d stop out and fully close. If, before entry, it breaks below $120, then this plan is invalid. If the next trading day flows clearly turn into net outflows, even if price briefly breaks out, I won’t chase.
The hot list is just a lead for attention; trading requires validating both the subscription/redemption mechanism and the price action at the same time.
#SOLSpotETFWeeklyInflow$188M #SOL
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
