The most unexpected thing about the weekend: $ZEC making a big move in silence. 21Shares has listed Europe’s first Zcash ETP on Euronext, and just before that Grayscale had just secured an ETF in the US. Privacy coins—ignored for nearly two years in the corner—suddenly have both sides of traditional finance opening the door. Pretty interesting.

But the macro backdrop isn’t nearly as gentle. Trump directly rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal; negotiations around the Strait of Hormuz are still stuck. Oil prices are swinging wildly in tandem. What’s more troublesome is that expectations for a Fed rate hike in October have already crept up to nearly 70%. If tonight’s jobs report (NFP) comes in above expectations, risk assets will likely take another hit.

Here’s my take: with geopolitical tensions layered on top of an unresolved interest-rate outlook, $BTC in the short term can only track US stock sentiment. Don’t rush to bottom-pick, and don’t rush to chase shorts either. $ZEC , with an independent narrative of its own, is arguably worth watching—big money always needs a place to settle when things get chaotic.

We’ll know more when the US session opens tonight. I’ll grab my popcorn and take the front row.

NFA DYOR

#比特币 #Zcash #地缘政治 #美联储 #加密货币