Post
--
心悦Joyce
·
--
BullishOver the past week, Meta’s personal AI agent Muse launched quickly and has already been adopted. This release is a major positive for Meta; Muse’s impressive performance once again proves that the tens of trillions in AI spending by major enterprises may ultimately pay off!
However, the scale of investment is simply too massive: even if AI fully delivers on market expectations—boosting the U.S. domestic product (GDP) in 2027 by 3%—the corresponding return would be only about $1 trillion. That gain may still be insufficient to cover the outlays. So the remaining return would have to be squeezed out elsewhere.
One common view is that AI will take over a large number of jobs. But with labor force growth still strong, this doesn’t seem to be happening. Another, more likely, view is that AI will trigger a dramatic reshaping of the economy: it will steal business from certain groups of companies, while routing those activities to other firms that are better positioned to use AI more effectively.
But for established companies that have previously been able to make steady profits without having to compete fiercely, this is a disaster.
We felt this clearly over the past week—especially on Tuesday. Stocks such as Planet Fitness and The New York Times Company fell because Muse makes it easier to cancel subscriptions. Charles Schwab and LPL Financial also declined, as they tend to leave less attentive customers’ cash in low-yield accounts, while Muse may move that money to higher-yield places. Tripadvisor and Booking Holdings faced similar pressure, since Muse can bypass these travel booking sites and lock in the best-value flights and hotels at the lowest prices.
The trade strategy of “go long on chips, short on software” was once used for hedging, but recently the semiconductor and software sectors have risen in tandem, and the strategy has failed. If more and more traditional individual stocks hit by AI are used to play the role of short hedges in an AI trade, their further declines could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
————————————————————————We continue to invest in the following three companies
$META.US
$GOOGL.US
$SPCX.US
However, the scale of investment is simply too massive: even if AI fully delivers on market expectations—boosting the U.S. domestic product (GDP) in 2027 by 3%—the corresponding return would be only about $1 trillion. That gain may still be insufficient to cover the outlays. So the remaining return would have to be squeezed out elsewhere.
One common view is that AI will take over a large number of jobs. But with labor force growth still strong, this doesn’t seem to be happening. Another, more likely, view is that AI will trigger a dramatic reshaping of the economy: it will steal business from certain groups of companies, while routing those activities to other firms that are better positioned to use AI more effectively.
But for established companies that have previously been able to make steady profits without having to compete fiercely, this is a disaster.
We felt this clearly over the past week—especially on Tuesday. Stocks such as Planet Fitness and The New York Times Company fell because Muse makes it easier to cancel subscriptions. Charles Schwab and LPL Financial also declined, as they tend to leave less attentive customers’ cash in low-yield accounts, while Muse may move that money to higher-yield places. Tripadvisor and Booking Holdings faced similar pressure, since Muse can bypass these travel booking sites and lock in the best-value flights and hotels at the lowest prices.
The trade strategy of “go long on chips, short on software” was once used for hedging, but recently the semiconductor and software sectors have risen in tandem, and the strategy has failed. If more and more traditional individual stocks hit by AI are used to play the role of short hedges in an AI trade, their further declines could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
————————————————————————We continue to invest in the following three companies
$META.US
$GOOGL.US
$SPCX.US
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.