In two nights, 19 violating vessels took fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military said that on Friday night there were 12 incidents and on Saturday night there were 7—each one involved ships that did not report through the designated waterway. Brent only inched up to 99.5, rising half a percentage point; WTI is stuck at 94.4. With gunfire escalating, oil prices just held steady. Brent contract open interest even added another 0.8 points in a day. The shorts are propped up under the ships. At Monday’s open, we’ll see how this account gets settled.
On the other side, on Hyperliquid, the short seller Loracle is running a “rent-collecting” business. He entered a position with more than 100,000 HYPE short orders at 64.7. Liquidation is at 123.63. His unrealized loss is $2.97 million, and yet the funding fees have already paid him a “salary” of $550,000. Across the whole chain, the unrealized loss has shrunk to $9.82 million. At the current price of 93.2, it’s still more than 30% away from liquidation. This trade is even more “watchable” than a story.
More details on the Treasury front: the 10-year yield at 5.17% is up by one point versus the start of the year. This week, SoftBank issued more than $11 billion in junk bonds. The 7-year coupon yield is down to 9.75%. JPMorgan calculates that by 2030, AI will need to borrow $4.1 trillion—when money is more expensive, the story is still being told. The moment Meta releases a new product, it jumps 13 points. Institutional options flow is three times that of last September. Those who are afraid of getting priced out are the ones issuing debt.
On the commodities side, Barrick and the unions in Mali have reached an agreement, and the strike originally planned for Monday is canceled. This supply-negative shock landed on gold without even a ripple. Gold is stuck at 4287, locked tightly between 4285 and 4289 like a narrow slit. Meanwhile, contract open interest quietly added 0.8 points in a day. Prices don’t move, but the chips do. Brent at 99.5 is bearing the heat from those 19 vessels. We’ll see on Monday—one side watches the central bank, the other watches the muzzle. The answer is sealed for Monday’s open.
#地缘政治 $XAU $BZ $HYPE
On the other side, on Hyperliquid, the short seller Loracle is running a “rent-collecting” business. He entered a position with more than 100,000 HYPE short orders at 64.7. Liquidation is at 123.63. His unrealized loss is $2.97 million, and yet the funding fees have already paid him a “salary” of $550,000. Across the whole chain, the unrealized loss has shrunk to $9.82 million. At the current price of 93.2, it’s still more than 30% away from liquidation. This trade is even more “watchable” than a story.
More details on the Treasury front: the 10-year yield at 5.17% is up by one point versus the start of the year. This week, SoftBank issued more than $11 billion in junk bonds. The 7-year coupon yield is down to 9.75%. JPMorgan calculates that by 2030, AI will need to borrow $4.1 trillion—when money is more expensive, the story is still being told. The moment Meta releases a new product, it jumps 13 points. Institutional options flow is three times that of last September. Those who are afraid of getting priced out are the ones issuing debt.
On the commodities side, Barrick and the unions in Mali have reached an agreement, and the strike originally planned for Monday is canceled. This supply-negative shock landed on gold without even a ripple. Gold is stuck at 4287, locked tightly between 4285 and 4289 like a narrow slit. Meanwhile, contract open interest quietly added 0.8 points in a day. Prices don’t move, but the chips do. Brent at 99.5 is bearing the heat from those 19 vessels. We’ll see on Monday—one side watches the central bank, the other watches the muzzle. The answer is sealed for Monday’s open.
#地缘政治 $XAU $BZ $HYPE