Ethereum recently has had the feel of “quiet hard work.”

Over the past month, it’s risen 7%. Put that number in front of Hyperliquid and Zcash and it really doesn’t look impressive—those are moving even more aggressively. But Ethereum’s resilience is that it doesn’t rely on short-term speculative capital; instead, a group of institutions has been buying continuously.

Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days—this isn’t something retail investors can pull off.

Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded net inflows for six straight trading days, totaling $834 million. The pace is similar to what we saw with Bitcoin ETFs in the first few weeks, and more importantly—this kind of sustained inflow usually represents allocation-driven capital, not hot money that rushes in and out.

Tom Lee’s BitMine hasn’t been idle either. This week it bought another $140 million worth of ETH, picking up 48,049 ETH from a FalconX-related wallet. BitMine currently holds about 3.967 million ETH in total, with an average cost of $3,074. Its current valuation is about $11.6 billion. Their goal is to accumulate 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.

What is the concept here? A listed company is buying with real money—and the more it buys, the more it keeps buying. Even the stock price has risen 551% over the past six months. This is more convincing than any analyst report.

Two on-chain indicators have sent signals.

The first is trading volume. This week, ETH’s 7-day moving average crossed above the 30-day moving average—a first since November 2025. Historically, after this kind of crossover, there is often a solid rebound.

The second is the MVRV ratio—that is, the ratio of market cap to the total cost basis of coin holders. This indicator has already entered positive territory. In the past four times similar situations appeared, ETH went on to rise above $4,000. Of course, history doesn’t simply repeat itself, but at least it suggests that current holders’ overall profitability is improving and that selling pressure isn’t as heavy as people might imagine.

RSI is currently 63. It’s not overbought. After the pullback from 2,800, the buying interest is still there.

At the 2,800 level, it has been repeatedly testing back and forth over the past two years.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades made a point: $2,800 has switched back and forth between support and resistance multiple times over the past two years. Each time the market keeps testing this zone, it’s usually followed by a fairly large move.

Right now ETH is around 2,713. The next major resistance above is 3,400, and 4,000 is the medium-term target. Looking downward, 2,600 is the psychological support level and a spot where institutions often step in.

Let’s be practical.

This ETH run is not quite like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is now around 84,000 and relies on the ETF and “digital gold” narrative. ETH’s narrative is more complex—there are ETF funds, corporate treasuries, on-chain technical indicators, and even a continuous accumulation from a die-hard bull like Tom Lee.

Rising slowly doesn’t mean it can’t keep rising. Sometimes it’s precisely because chips are shifting from short-term hands to long-term hands that the price looks “sluggish.” Once this handover is complete, the direction becomes clearer.

In the short term, whether 2,800 can break through effectively is key. If it breaks upward on increased volume, 3,400 is the next target. If it pulls back to 2,600, for institutions that’s actually an opportunity to add. For retail investors, don’t chase; wait for the pullback to confirm support before considering—going in now won’t feel as comfortable.

ETH’s fundamentals are improving, but reaching the $4,000 target price needs help from the macro environment—it won’t be achieved in one step by ETF inflows alone.

Risk reminder: #币安广场 The content above is an objective整理 based on publicly available market data and does not constitute any investment advice. ETH is currently near a key resistance level. ETF capital flows may reverse. Please make independent judgments and do risk control. Investing involves risk; enter the market cautiously. $BNB