According to Jin10, CITIC Securities said U.S. stocks have hit new highs on a new round of application expansion and hardware recovery, so overseas markets should no longer be considered a factor affecting A-shares. Although sentiment is temporarily relatively weak, CITIC Securities still maintains its view that A-shares will trade sideways this year, saying the period around third-quarter earnings reports is the last offensive window of the year and that the probability of an index recovery this year is much higher than the chance of a new low. It said the likelihood of a sharp index correction is small as earnings trends improve, macro risks become more visible, and sentiment has already fallen into a slump. CITIC Securities also said the conditions for a Shanghai Composite recovery are not as strict as expected, and it tested five possible paths for the index to recover this year. Under the assumption of favorable industry conditions and limited short-term incremental funds, it said a rising structure led by technology leaders, resource and energy chemicals, and financial heavyweights best balances fundamentals and liquidity. It added that investors should remain optimistic during the period of market hesitation and position themselves with AI plus energy and chemicals.
