With the National Day holiday now just three trading days away, the question of whether to hold stocks or hold cash is being raised again.
This year is different from previous years. In past years, the view of “holding stocks through the holiday” was almost unanimously preferred. This year, broker research notes have clearly been tiered: most still lean toward holding stocks, but the definitions of “win rate,” what to hold, and the degree of disagreement are more revealing than the conclusions themselves.
There are three “win rate” definitions, and the warm vs. cold gap is huge. Huachuang is the most optimistic: it forecasts a win rate of 67% for the two days before the holiday and 80% for the five days after. Haitai pours cold water: over the past 20 years, within the 10 trading days before the holiday, the SSE Composite’s win rate was only 38.1%, and “win rate before the holiday is insufficient for four in ten” was largely overlooked by most. Bank of China finds an inverse pattern: when the market rises before the holiday, it tends to face pressure after; when the market has already been “cleared” beforehand, a rebound often follows.
Weak before the holiday and strong after: the logic holds in a vacuum period—overseas markets remain open as usual, oil prices ferment, and the post-holiday period absorbs things in one go. Combined with end-of-quarter performance assessments, it is already rational for institutions to lock in profits and reduce volatility. The biggest divergence lies in “dividend themes”—Haitong said dividend themes are not defensive before the holiday, with an absolute win rate of 31.2% at the lowest across styles; however, Galaxy and CICC Capital Research insist that cross–long-holiday risks have not been fully cleared, and financials, utilities, and coal still have value as core holdings.
Offensive direction is highly consistent: AI computing power and hardware. Optical communications, PCBs, advanced packaging, and CCL have been singled out.
After the holidays, check the substance with four variables: US-China trade talks, the volume of fiscal physical work, statements from the Federal Reserve, and AI as well as the third-quarter reports. #本周Strategy与Strive增持2305枚BTC $QNT
