Observe for only one day; the next day you should re-explain the rationale
Trigger scenario: The following is a hypothetical teaching scenario. Suppose you have 1,000 USDT. You buy 200 USDT worth of a certain coin, and your original plan was to observe for just one day: within 24 hours, if none of the pre-written conditions appear, you end the plan. On day one, the price neither reaches the invalidation line nor the target line. You think, “Let’s wait a few more days,” and so you change the observation period to holding.
Wrong decision: This looks like there’s no new action, but in reality you’ve changed the time window. A one-day plan tests short-term conditions; once you extend it to a week, if the 200 USDT position drops 15% from the entry price, your unrealized account value would be down by 30 USDT. The original rationale only supports observing for one day; it doesn’t automatically justify holding for six more days. If the intended use of funds or the waiting conditions changes, the old rationale may no longer hold.
Which step to change: Before placing the order, write clearly: “Observation cutoff: some time tomorrow,” and “What to do after expiration: exit if the condition doesn’t appear, or re-evaluate.” If you want to extend at expiration, rewrite the deadline, the rationale, and the invalidation conditions, then re-calculate the loss you can tolerate over the new timeframe. If you’re extending only because you don’t want to admit there was no result, that doesn’t count as new evidence. Do a self-check on an existing position: mask the P&L and write the original cutoff time; if you can’t, don’t call it a short-term observation.
Trigger scenario: The following is a hypothetical teaching scenario. Suppose you have 1,000 USDT. You buy 200 USDT worth of a certain coin, and your original plan was to observe for just one day: within 24 hours, if none of the pre-written conditions appear, you end the plan. On day one, the price neither reaches the invalidation line nor the target line. You think, “Let’s wait a few more days,” and so you change the observation period to holding.
Wrong decision: This looks like there’s no new action, but in reality you’ve changed the time window. A one-day plan tests short-term conditions; once you extend it to a week, if the 200 USDT position drops 15% from the entry price, your unrealized account value would be down by 30 USDT. The original rationale only supports observing for one day; it doesn’t automatically justify holding for six more days. If the intended use of funds or the waiting conditions changes, the old rationale may no longer hold.
Which step to change: Before placing the order, write clearly: “Observation cutoff: some time tomorrow,” and “What to do after expiration: exit if the condition doesn’t appear, or re-evaluate.” If you want to extend at expiration, rewrite the deadline, the rationale, and the invalidation conditions, then re-calculate the loss you can tolerate over the new timeframe. If you’re extending only because you don’t want to admit there was no result, that doesn’t count as new evidence. Do a self-check on an existing position: mask the P&L and write the original cutoff time; if you can’t, don’t call it a short-term observation.