The statement by this Iranian minister basically tells the market: the Strait of Hormuz will not escalate into a full-blown hot war in the short term. $CL is currently at 94.22, up only +0.07% over the past 24 hours; the market basically hasn’t priced in any geopolitical premium—meaning traders had already priced in the negotiation path. I’m watching whether $CL can hold the 94 level; if there’s real progress on the talks, look next at 92. If they flip midstream, jumping back to 97 is just a matter of one candlestick. $XAU 4287.6, -0.03% is moving sideways; the absence of a safe-haven buy order is actually evidence that the market believes the “negotiations solve it” storyline. Gold is now desensitized to geopolitics and is driven more by real interest rates. My take: $CL is likely to trade in a weak, range-bound pattern in the short term, and $XAU currently has no safe-haven catalyst—don’t chase longs. In the chaotic period, wait for the news to land.

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