Trump rejected Iran’s “seven-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz” proposal. The reason was very Trump: “I reject their offer,” and he also said the U.S. “fully controls” the strait, with large quantities of oil flowing out of it.
First, lay out the facts
The plan proposed by Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (spelled Araghzi in Chinese), at the United Nations centers on the following: the U.S. stops hostilities, unfreezes assets, lifts oil sanctions, and removes the port blockade—then the strait would be reopened within seven days. The conditions are not new; they are promises already made by the U.S. in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in June.
Trump’s response: he doesn’t accept it. The WSJ also revealed something even harsher—he told an aide that after the midterm elections in November, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran. He also posted a map on Truth Social, labeling the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait.”
Take a good look at the absurdity of this scene
He says “fully controls it,” yet refuses a plan that could allow the world’s one-fifth of oil to flow normally. If the U.S. truly controls it, why not let it reopen? If it doesn’t control it, then who is the “fully controls” line meant for?
The answer is in another sentence. U.S. officials said the U.S.-led effort to “ensure tankers can still pass through despite threats from Iran” “reduced the urgency of reaching an agreement.” Translate that: We have a way to make tankers go, so no rush. As for which route the tankers take and how much “protection money” they paid—nobody says.
But markets don’t care who’s talking big.
Hormuz has been hit-and-miss since late February. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas pass through this waterway. Now it’s effectively operating in a half-closed state. Brent crude is around 104—this price already includes a geopolitical premium. If negotiations completely break down and bombing resumes, the premium will be repriced.
Trump’s words today might be “bomb them,” and tomorrow he may say, “I like the deal.” His views will shift depending on the outcome of the midterm elections. Trading this kind of thing is no different from guessing a coin toss.
What’s really worth watching is how the tankers actually move. Whether insurance rates rise again, and whether there are more ships taking the detour around the Cape of Good Hope. These data don’t lie. Whether Trump lies or not is not the important part.
#特朗普拒绝重开霍尔木兹海峡提议
First, lay out the facts
The plan proposed by Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (spelled Araghzi in Chinese), at the United Nations centers on the following: the U.S. stops hostilities, unfreezes assets, lifts oil sanctions, and removes the port blockade—then the strait would be reopened within seven days. The conditions are not new; they are promises already made by the U.S. in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in June.
Trump’s response: he doesn’t accept it. The WSJ also revealed something even harsher—he told an aide that after the midterm elections in November, the U.S. could resume bombing Iran. He also posted a map on Truth Social, labeling the Strait of Hormuz the “Trump Strait.”
Take a good look at the absurdity of this scene
He says “fully controls it,” yet refuses a plan that could allow the world’s one-fifth of oil to flow normally. If the U.S. truly controls it, why not let it reopen? If it doesn’t control it, then who is the “fully controls” line meant for?
The answer is in another sentence. U.S. officials said the U.S.-led effort to “ensure tankers can still pass through despite threats from Iran” “reduced the urgency of reaching an agreement.” Translate that: We have a way to make tankers go, so no rush. As for which route the tankers take and how much “protection money” they paid—nobody says.
But markets don’t care who’s talking big.
Hormuz has been hit-and-miss since late February. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas pass through this waterway. Now it’s effectively operating in a half-closed state. Brent crude is around 104—this price already includes a geopolitical premium. If negotiations completely break down and bombing resumes, the premium will be repriced.
Trump’s words today might be “bomb them,” and tomorrow he may say, “I like the deal.” His views will shift depending on the outcome of the midterm elections. Trading this kind of thing is no different from guessing a coin toss.
What’s really worth watching is how the tankers actually move. Whether insurance rates rise again, and whether there are more ships taking the detour around the Cape of Good Hope. These data don’t lie. Whether Trump lies or not is not the important part.
#特朗普拒绝重开霍尔木兹海峡提议